Baldwin’s Monday Wx Blog for Sept. 14

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected this week. The impacts of Sally are expected to be minimal. The portion of the storm with the greatest risk for severe weather should stay south of the plateau. I’ll keep a close eye on that, though.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Even with Sally’s remnants approaching Wednesday evening and a strong cold front coming Thursday, there are no indications that severe weather will be a concern. I’ll closely monitor that, though, for any changes.

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with just a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms developing by evening/overnight, especially south of I-40.

Thursday: Scattered showers and storms, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

Friday: After a possible morning shower, we begin a string of very pleasant days.

Saturday – Sunday: Pleasant! Be sure and get outside!

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

The week begins well but unsettled weather moves in mid-week, thanks to Sally and a strong cold front. That front should clear our area by Friday morning, leaving us with a very pleasant weekend for outdoor activities, including hay cutting!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 111 at Death Valley, California

Low: 21 at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropics

Tropical Storm Sally is gathering strength as she slowly approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected Tuesday morning along the southeast coast of Louisiana. The storm will gradually move north, northeast, producing flooding rainfall, storm surge, and isolated tornadoes for parts of the Southeast. The slow-moving nature of the storm will make her especially troublesome. The good news is that Sally is no longer expected to be a cat 2 at landfall, but rather a cat 1. That could change, but the trend is in the right direction! I’ll keep you all posted.

We now have Tropical Storm Teddy out in the Atlantic. Teddy is the earliest 19th named storm on record. The previous record was October 4th, during the historic 2005 hurricane season. While he is at least a week away from being any concern to the US (if he ever is), Teddy is expected to become a major hurricane by the end of this week (that’s the reason for the “M” symbol). I imagine that will make for some impressive satellite imagery. It is far too early to know if he will impact our country. I’ll keep a close eye on him!

And yes, the tropics are VERY active. Thankfully, the yellow-shaded region in the western Gulf is moving south and is not expected to become a named storm. Hurricane Paulette is gathering strength but will stay out at sea. Tropical Depression Rene is weakening and will dissipate soon. Tropical depression #21 will become a named storm soon (Vicky). And yet another tropical wave is emerging off the African coastline that will need to be watched closely. We only have one more name left after Vicky forms (Wilfred) and then we’ll be using Greek alphabet letters for only the second time since storms began being named in 1953 (the other time was the 2005 season). I have never seen so much going on at one time in the tropics! Whew…I’ll keep you all posted on the latest!

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes are on Sally, as she moves toward the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Paulette is out in the Atlantic, getting stronger, but that cold front you see moving off the East Coast will push that storm out to sea. Farther west, the wildfire danger continues for portions of Montana, Idaho, Oregon, California, and Nevada.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The big weather headline for Tuesday will be Hurricane Sally.

 On This Day

On this day in 1937, the temperature hit 92 degrees in Seattle, Washington. That set an all-time record high for that city for the month of September.

Long Range Outlook 

Beginning this weekend, the trend will be for hotter weather in the western US (the last thing they need!) and cooler in the eastern US. Most of the country will trend much drier, including in our area. This does not bode well for folks battling wildfires out west.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

This is a map showing the bathymetry of our Southeastern coastline. Bathymetry is the topography of ocean floors. In other words, it’s the “lay of the land” that is covered by water. We need this information to know the slope of the ocean floor as it approaches the coast. The gentler the slope, the easier it is for storm surge from hurricanes to blow ashore. The redder colors are steeper slopes and deeper waters. Notice the northern Gulf Coast is a gentler slope and southeast Florida is the gentlest of all. Since storm surge is the most devastating aspect of a hurricane, this information is quite vital to forecasting hurricane impacts on coastal areas.

NASA Nerdology

Nine years ago this month, the twin probes Ebb and Flow of the GRAIL mission launched toward the moon. Together, they mapped the moon’s gravity, creating a detailed, density-based map of the Moon’s crust. The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) was an American lunar science mission in NASA’s Discover Program, which used high-quality gravitational field mapping of the Moon to determine its interior structure.

You all have a great day!

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

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