Rain from “Delta” arrives later today
Area-wide rainfall expected tonight through Sunday (off and on)
Severe weather risk is low but not zero
Turning cooler and drier next week
Video At a Glance
Daily Forecast Summary
Today: Rain from “Delta” arrives by this evening, becoming widespread overnight.
Saturday: Rain likely, possibly a thunderstorm. Breezy.
Sunday: Rain showers likely.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a shower during the afternoon/evening/overnight.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy.
Wednesday – Thursday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Cooler but quite pleasant.
The greatest threat facing our region is the chance for a strong storm from the remnants of Delta, as they pass through on Saturday. More than likely, we’ll see no severe weather from this system, but you can never completely rule out a strong storm or two from tropical systems that could rotate (tropical systems have a lot of “spin” to them). I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if there’s anything you need to know about.
Meteorologist Mark’s Severe Wx Concern
My severe weather concern is unchanged from yesterday.
Hay Wx Forecast
As you can probably tell from our skies today, rain is on the way. That rain becomes likely by overnight and stays with us through the weekend. By early next week, a cold front moves through that could spark a few light showers on Monday. After that, the forecast is looking drier and cooler for much of next week.
On This Day in Wx History
On this day in 1987, eighteen cities in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville, North Carolina, dipped to 29 degrees! The record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville, Florida was their fourth record low that month.
Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes
High: 104° at Ocotillo Wells, California
Low: 13° at Peter Sinks, Utah
The forecast track for Delta brings the center of that system right into Tennessee by Saturday night. We will see rain showers in advance of that center by Friday night. Rainfall amounts look to be in the 1-2 inch range across the plateau, with some isolated locations perhaps picking up a bit more. Since we’ve been dry lately, flooding does not look to be an issue. The severe weather threat looks to be on the low end of the scale, as well, since Delta will be weakening so rapidly.
There’s already another disturbance to monitor in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted that area in yellow. It has a low chance of development right now, but it bears watching.
Today’s National Wx Hazards
Unsettled weather can be found across the Southeast, as Hurricane Delta approaches the Louisiana coastline today. Heavy rainfall will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley, while the greatest severe weather threat will be found closer to the coastline.
Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards
An active day! Snowflakes will be flying for the Northwest, while a weakening “Delta” makes it way northward across the Mississippi River Valley. Heavy rainfall will threaten folks to the north of Delta (red-shaded region).
8 – 14 Day Outlook
The extended outlook basically features heat in the western US and cooler weather in the eastern US. Dry weather prevails over much of the entire country. While this is not good news for the western wildfires, this pattern strongly suggest pleasant October weather ahead for our region.
I had a wonderful time teaching the Lifelong Learning course on Wednesday! A student and founder of the Lifelong Learning program at Roane State, John Conrad, had these very kind words to say, “I attended a wonderful class this morning on Hurricanes by Meteorologist Mark. He is a great teacher. Very easy to listen to and knowledge just seeps in while he is talking. I know a lot more about hurricanes today than I did yesterday.” I can’t wait to teach the next course!
I hope you have been enjoying Mars glowing in the eastern sky during the evenings! Be sure to remember that the bright, red dot you see is actually an active world. The HiRISE camera aboard our Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has even caught avalanches in progress! Notice the cloud of debris from the avalanche in the upper left corner of the photo. How wild is that?!