Upper Cumberland Wx for Sunday, Oct. 11th

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Headlines 

A wet Sunday

Drier this coming week

Widespread frost coming Friday night

Meteorologist Mark’s Vlog in a Flash

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Showers likely throughout the day.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shower, as a cool front passes through the area.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a shower with a cold front passing through.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and much cooler. Perhaps a sprinkle of rain. Overnight widespread frost likely, under clearing skies.

Saturday: Sunny and cool. Widespread frost/light freeze conditions overnight.

Threats

Frost: Widespread frost/light freeze conditions are likely by Friday night. That threat is likely to continue Saturday night, as well.

Meteorologist Mark’s Severe Wx Concern

A stable airmass will keep us free from severe storms this week.

Hay Wx Forecast

After today, the weather is looking much better. Cold frontal passages Monday and Thursday afternoons will create the chance for a passing shower (20%) but other than that it’s dry. The drier, cooler weather looks to stick around for several days following this outlook period.

On This Day in Wx History

1925- Widespread, early season snows fell in the northeastern U.S., with as much as two feet in New Hampshire and Vermont. The heavy snow blocked roads and cancelled football games.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 105° at Rio Grande Village, Texas 

Low: 15° at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropical Outlook

We’re still keeping a close eye on another disturbance out in the Atlantic. Right now, the chance for development is low and it appears conditions will become unfavorable for the storm by Wednesday. Still, all systems must be watched closely this time of year.

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Unsettled weather in the east, from the passage of the remnants of “Delta”, will bring the threat for flash flooding to the southern Appalachians. Severe thunderstorms can be found along a cold front today through parts of the Midwest (yellow-shaded region). Meanwhile, a wildfire danger can be found across eastern New Mexico and the Panhandle of Texas. Notice the snowflakes flying across the Northwest!

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Unsettled weather can be found in both the eastern US and Northwest. However, widespread hazardous weather is not expected.

 8 – 14 Day Outlook

Generally drier and cooler weather overspreads much of the country in the 8-14 day outlook. This indicates very pleasant October weather ahead for us, starting next weekend.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Sunday Story

October is another seasonal transition month, as summer slowly fades to winter. The bridge between the two extremes is Fall and October finds itself right in the middle of the Fall season.  

October is typically the driest month of the year, though the tropics can certainly have a say in that. In 1995, Hurricane Opal made a beeline for the plateau, after making landfall near Destin, Florida on the northern Gulf Coast. That storm brought flooding rainfall, inundating southern Cumberland County with nearly eight inches of rain! Gusty winds downed trees across the plateau. 

October of both 1954 and 1986 brought record heat to the region. Temperatures soared to near 90 degrees in both of those years across the plateau, establishing all-time record high temperatures for October. 

October brings the first frost and freeze to the plateau, often toward the middle of the month. However, certain years have seen frosts and freezes much earlier than that! The earliest freeze ever recorded on the plateau occurred on October 2, 1974, as temperatures fell into the low 30s. The next night, temperatures fell into the mid 20s across the plateau!

The coldest October came in 1957. The official low in Crossville on the 28th was 20 degrees, meaning many other areas were likely in the teens! That’s a bit more frost on the October pumpkin than many of us would like!

Then, there’s the unforgettable snow on Halloween of 2014. As much as two inches of snow fell across the plateau. Parts of Cumberland County recorded up to 2.2 inches of snow!

Changing leaves, changing temperatures, and changing weather patterns all come with a very changeable October that transitions us from Summer to Fall. Let’s just hope those changes come gradual and not all at once! 

(The Sunday Story is a reprint of the weekly weather article I write for both the Fentress Courier and Livingston Enterprise. The story is printed here each Sunday for you to read, after it has published in each of those papers.)

You all have a great day!

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