Meteorologist Mark’s Wx for Sunday, Oct. 25

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Headlines 

Lots of clouds this week

Rain & storms by midweek

Heavy rain and some strong storms mid to late week

Meteorologist Mark’s Vlog in a Flash

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: A very foggy morning will give way to mostly cloudy skies as we go through the day.

Monday – Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain develops Tuesday night.

Wednesday – Thursday: Rain and thunderstorms. Rainfall could be heavy.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Turning cooler.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cooler.

Meteorologist Mark’s Severe Wx Concern

My concern has increased for Wednesday and Thursday, owing to recent forecast changes that could bring heavy rainfall and strong storms to our area. I’m monitoring this changing forecast very closely.

Threats

Thunderstorms associated with a strong storm system and the remnants of Zeta could bring heavy rainfall to the plateau by the middle and end of the week. The heavy rainfall may also be accompanied by stronger thunderstorms. I’ll be monitoring all of this very closely.

On This Day in Wx History

1955- Despite a frigid morning low of 21 degrees, Crossville’s temperature jumps 42 degrees to top out at a pleasant 63 degrees by the afternoon.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 93° at Death Valley, California 

Low: -1° at both Neihart and Mountain, Montana

Tropical Outlook

Earlier this morning, the National Hurricane Center determined that the area of low pressure in the Caribbean that we’ve been monitoring has now developed into Tropical Storm Zeta. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by Monday night. The current forecast track takes the storm to the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday. As you can see, the storm then seems to aim for Tennessee by the end of the week and that is causing our forecast to undergo some changes. I’ll be watching this very closely.

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Cold air slips southward onto the plains, bringing accumulating snowfall to many areas. Farther west, folks in California deal with another dangerous day of wildfires.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Cold air plunges into the central and southern plains, bringing ice to western Texas and Oklahoma, with snow (some of it heavy) falling across the central plains. Meanwhile, a wildfire danger increases once again for California.

 8 – 14 Day Outlook

The first week of November is trending drier and warmer for much of the country.

Temperature

Precipitation 

The Sunday Story

The Winter Outlook

Trying to forecast a winter-season outlook is always a challenge. Some folks rely on weather folklore, though I find much of that to be unreliable. Perhaps folklore worked better in the past?

Each Autumn, NOAA issues their outlook for the winter and it has proven to be a rather reliable outlook. Sure, circumstances change and throw the outlook off from time to time, but overall, the outlook proves useful. 

NOAA doesn’t base their winter outlook on Woolly Worms, acorn crops and so on. NOAA’s outlook is based on global atmospheric and oceanic patterns and how they are expected to evolve in the coming months. 

NOAA’s outlook predicts a good chance of a warmer than usual winter for the plateau. That’s not to say there won’t be cold spells, but the overall winter is looking mild. That does not bode well for snow lovers.

The good news is that precipitation is looking neither above nor below normal. Hopefully, that means we can avoid conditions getting too dry or too wet. Water tables are very high across the region these days, so groundwater should be in good shape through the winter months. 

It is worth noting that mild winters often lead to more severe thunderstorm chances. A La Nina pattern is expected to persist through the winter and spring. Anytime a La Nina pattern develops, our risk for severe storms increases a bit, too. 

While a mild winter looks to be in the cards for the plateau, there will certainly be some cold snaps from time to time. Keep in mind that all it takes is the cold air meeting up with moist air a time or two to make for some bouts of wintry precipitation. 

I say this every year but it’s worth repeating. Always prepare for the worst but hope for the best! 

You all have a great day!

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