Winter Wx Update (issued Wed @ 3:00pm)

WHAT: Light snow

WHEN: Thursday night & Friday morning

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement concerning the winter weather threat for our area for Thursday night. They basically state that they intend to issue a winter weather advisory for our area for Thursday night. That advisory will be for 1-2 inches of snow areawide.

Snow could start being problematic for roadways as soon as it gets dark. I would make plans to be home by sunset, just to be safe.

Confidence is increasing that snow will occur, and confidence is increasing that some of that snow will accumulate. Our ground temperatures are certainly cold, and we have precipitation coming our way. I wouldn’t be surprised if wet snowflakes and sleet pellets blend in with the rain throughout the event, though surface temperatures should stay above freezing until sunset. The rain/snow mix should hold off until the afternoon.

I’m always cautious to forecast snowfall accumulation for the plateau. After looking at the latest data, I can say with great certainty that snow will fall. I also feel certain that snow will accumulate. I’m just not comfortable, at this time, forecasting more than an inch for everyone. I do think we will see up to an inch areawide, with isolated locations picking up 2 inches. The greatest chance for accumulating snowfall continues to be for those of you south of the interstate.

This forecast could change. Stay tuned. This is from an upper-level low, which is basically an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Since it is an upper-level low, that means it will not be able to pull up a lot of warm air at the surface, like a surface low would. That will keep temps on the cool side for the duration of this precip event. Upper level lows are also more challenging to forecast, since data is so limited from the higher levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level low is a weatherman’s woe! (ha)

If this system taps into more moisture, our snowfall forecast will go up. I’ll keep an eye on that.

If needed, I’ll do another special update later this evening.

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