Thursday Evening Winter Wx Update

The winter weather advisory issued by the National Weather Service now goes into effect at 8:00 this evening, rather than 11:00. As is often the case, these systems can move in earlier than expected. My hope is that everyone has already made plans to be home by dark, if not soon thereafter.

The advisory expires Friday evening.

Precipitation has been trying to fall to the ground since this afternoon, but a dry airmass here at the surface has kept us mostly dry thus far. That will change.

I am no longer expecting any of this precip to fall as a rain/snow mix. This is a precip event that will likely be 100% snow. The problem is getting enough of it to accumulate.

Two battles are being fought in our atmosphere. The first is the battle for more moisture. This system is rather moisture starved. Were it not for that, we’d be looking at several inches of snow areawide. The other battle is overcoming the dry air here at the surface. We’ve already lost some accumulation to precip evaporating before it reaches the ground. The sooner this airmass moistens up, the sooner snow can fall. If some of you all don’t see that moistening, all of your snow will evaporate before hitting the ground. The greatest risk for that happening is for areas along and north of a line from Livingston to Jamestown to Oneida.

One thing we have on our side for accumulation is temperatures. Air temperatures are already in the lower 30s. Ground temps are cold too.

Snow will develop tonight areawide. I think all of us can expect one inch or less of snowfall, with those of you south of the interstate having the best chance of picking up more than an inch. Some locations south of the interstate could pick up closer to two inches, especially if you’re at a higher elevation.

Snow should taper off as we go through the morning hours of Friday.

Please be careful if you’re out and about. I noticed they’ve salted many of our roadways. Never the less, please drive safe.

And just a heads up….data continues to look promising for another snow chance on Monday. Stay tuned.

I’ll update as needed. Otherwise, I’ll have a full blog update in the morning…..hopefully with some snow pics to share!

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