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Winds of change are blowing today & Monday
Potential for heavy downpours and a strong storm on Monday (monitoring)
A low-to-no-impact wintry mix possible Wednesday night
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog
Daily Forecast Summary
Today: A chance for showers by the afternoon and evening. Rain becoming likely overnight. Windy.
Monday: Rain and storms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy and a few of the storms could be strong. Windy.
Tuesday: Chance for a morning shower. Becoming sunny by afternoon.
Wednesday: Clouds increase, with a chance for showers by afternoon/evening. Showers may mix with snow overnight.
Thursday: Chance of morning snow flurries/light snow. Decreasing clouds by noon.
Friday: Mostly sunny.
Saturday: Partly cloudy.
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns
Confidence is low that we will see a low-end severe storm risk Monday afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front crosses the area. My thoughts are unchanged from yesterday. There are questions of how much instability our atmosphere can obtain before the front gets here, and that is still a big question mark. If we can get some sunshine, as some guidance is suggesting, that will help destabilize the atmosphere and increase our risk for storms. This continues to look like an isolated event and not a widespread severe weather outbreak. I’ll keep a close eye on things!
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion
Forecasting severe storms this time of year is complicated by the fact that we don’t have severe weather very often this time of year. That throws some of the guidance off, especially when it comes to model data that uses climatological data. But, we do have severe weather this time of year from time to time and it can be quite potent. That being said, there has never been a clear signal that Monday’s threat would be anything widespread or significant, especially for our area, but there has always been at least some signal that a severe storm or two could occur in our region.
The guidance this morning suggests that we could see some sun tomorrow before the front gets here. That is a bit concerning but that still isn’t setting off any alarms or whistles with model data. Never the less, I never let my guard down when we have unseasonably warm temps ahead of a cold front in January. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on things for you!
After this system, we have another system coming Wednesday afternoon/night. That could bring us a little bit of wintry precip but accumulation looks unlikely at this point. If that should change I’ll certainly let you know.
The next system should arrive Saturday night/Sunday, with more rain and thunder.
FYI, my brother went Crappie fishing this weekend and he says we’re in for an early spring because the Crappie are already full of eggs. We shall see!
On This Day in Wx History
1997- A rare winter severe weather outbreak results in at least 7 tornadoes across Middle Tennessee, injuring 31 persons and causing damage in excess of $9 million. Amazingly, there are no fatalities. Barfield, near Murfreesboro, is hit by an F-4.
Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes
High: 84° at Miles City & Brighton, Florida
Low: -15° at Rome, Wisconsin
Today’s National Wx Hazards
An active weather day! Rain and storms are slamming the southern plains today, with severe storms possible across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Ice is falling from Kansas to Kentucky, while snow falls to the north, in the colder air. That snow stretches from the mountains of the West Coast to the Great Lakes Region. Some of that snow could be very heavy in the mountains along the California/Oregon border, as well as across the Sierra Nevada Mountains along the California/Nevada border.
Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards
Another active weather day! Rain and storms hit the South, while a swatch of freezing rain falls from Kansas to Maryland. Heavy snow will fall from northern Kansas to northern Illinois. More heavy snow is expected across the Southwest, especially across parts of Arizona.
Each January, a list of the previous year’s billion-dollar disasters is released. Last year had more billion-dollar disasters than any other year on record. So, if you suspected 2020 was full of big disasters NOAA can confirm your suspicion!
A total of 22 billion-dollar disasters were reported in 2020 across the country. Since 1980, the nation has averaged seven such disasters per year.
One of 2020’s weather disasters hit close to home. A single supercell spawned a series of tornadoes as it moved across the state on the night of March 3rd. That was the storm that produced tornadoes from the Nashville area to Cookeville, and then on into Rinnie and Catoosa. That storm, along with flooding rains from that system, created a billion dollars’ worth of damage!
Another billion dollars’ worth of damage resulted from the big windstorm that ravaged Iowa in the summer. A squall line of hurricane-force winds screamed across that state, with wind gusts over 100 mph. Many communities across that state are still cleaning up from that.
Many of the billion-dollar disasters came from all the hurricanes that came onshore last year. There were more named storms in 2020 than in any other year on record. Several of those made landfall, bringing disastrous flooding and damaging winds.
On the other end of that spectrum, folks out west were about as dry as we were wet, leading to a very expensive drought. Droughts can be one of the costliest disasters an area can experience, having far-reaching effects that, like many other disasters, are felt for years to come and long after the rains return. Those droughts also led to very costly wildfires for California, Oregon, and Washington.
Let’s just hope 2021 is more merciful to us. I think we’ve earned a break.