I am still monitoring our storm situation for Monday. This continues to look like a low-end threat but the chance is not zero. Even if we just have one strong storm and that one storm is in your neighborhood, that makes it a big deal to you.
The greatest threat from any storm would be a damaging wind gust.
The weather map is quite active this evening. The blue-shaded counties in West TN are for a dense fog advisory. The yellow-shaded region along the Oklahoma/Texas border is for the threat for severe storms. The warm front you see along the coast will lift north tonight, bringing widespread showers and thunder for the early morning hours. That activity is not expected to be severe but you may hear some thunder. That is why the map below has our region the lightest green shading (that represents general, non-severe thunderstorms).
We should see a break from that rain by mid-morning. By lunchtime, we could see a few peaks of sun. If that should happen the atmosphere could destabilize enough to support a severe storm, when the cold front passes through in the afternoon/evening. That’s the part we have to keep an eye on.
I’ll be watching it all! I’ll have a full blog update in the morning. You will notice a new section devoted to forecasting 48-hour precipitation amounts. Look for that new section in tomorrow’s blog!
You all take care!