Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Mon., Jan. 25

Headlines 

Isolated strong to severe storms possible this afternoon/evening (2:00 pm – 10:00 pm)

Snow possible Wednesday night

New storm system arrives by Sunday

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Showers and storms. Some of the storms could be strong during the afternoon and evening hours. Windy.

Tuesday: Clearing skies.

Wednesday: Increasing cloudiness, with a chance of showers by afternoon. Rain should change to snow overnight, with light accumulation possible.

Thursday: Clearing skies. Colder.

Friday: Mostly sunny and cool.

Saturday: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by overnight.

Sunday: Showers likely.

48- Hour Precip (New and experimental!)

Expect changes to come with this. I’ve needed something to forecast precip amounts for some time now. This is a start! (ha)

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

An unseasonably mild January day may combine with an evening cold front to spark some strong storms across the region. One or two of these storms could even become severe. A damaging straight-line wind gust is the main threat. We are very chilly right now but warmer temps are expected to move in behind a warm front. We could even see a peak or two of sun. The more sun we get the more unstable the atmosphere will become. It does appear things will destabilize a bit more than it looked like they would yesterday, therefore my confidence has increases just a bit for strong storms.

You all know the drill. If we stay cloudy and cool the severe threat stays away.

This continues to look like a very low-end threat. I’ll keep a close eye on things. The threat timeframe is throughout the afternoon and early evening, from about 2:00 to 10:00 pm. I’ll post an update this afternoon to fine tune the timing.

While confidence is still a bit low, it has increased enough for me to feel the need to create a snow scale for Wednesday night. Rain should change to snow during the night and there could be enough moisture to give us all a coating of snow. If trends continue I will be increasing my confidence to medium later today. At this point, I can’t see us getting more than an inch of snow, but I’ll keep an eye on it!

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

It’s certainly an active pattern! Once we get through today’s storm threat, we will turn our attention to a snow threat for Wednesday night. Such is the ways of January…with quickly changing weather patterns.

We should be very thankful that the jetstream isn’t more active directly overhead us. If we had better atmospheric dynamics in place today could have been a very stormy day! As it is, we’re just concerned with one or two storms that could get strong to briefly severe.

On This Day in Wx History

2002- Three-day flooding event across Middle Tennessee ends, with flooding reported in 39 of the mid state’s 42 counties. Two persons are killed in Cookeville on the 23rd during a rescue attempt. In Bedford County, a couple and their son are killed when their car is swept into Carr Creek during the evening of the 24th. A woman is killed at the Cedars of Lebanon State Park in Wilson County when she is swept away in a flooded creek. Overall, 6 people are killed, with another 11 injuries. A total of 97 homes are damaged, along with 37 businesses, and at least 34 bridges. Some 40 roads are damaged in Lawrence County alone. There are also numerous school and road closings, and 180 people have to be evacuated from their homes, 46 of them being placed in shelters. Rainfall totals during the three days are topped off by Wartrace, which measures 9.25″. Flooding also occurs along many rivers, with the Duck River at Columbia cresting more than 13 feet above flood stage. Damage is estimated at $2 million.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 87° at Rio Grande Village, Texas 

Low: -24° at Lamar Ranger Station (Yellowstone), Wyoming

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Freezing rain will wreck havoc from Kansas to Pennsylvania and Virginia today. Farther north, heavy snow will fall across parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. More heavy snow can be found across parts of the Southwest US.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Freezing rain affects much of Pennsylvania and areas eastward to New York City. Accumulating snowfall can be found from the Four Corners Region to New England. The day’s heaviest snowfall can be found in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, where several feet of snow could fall.

 Weather Shots

Can you imagine this being our snow forecast? (haha) Several FEET of snow could fall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California this week. This is very good news, as much of California gets their fresh water from mountain snowmelt.

NASA Nerdology

This lunar sample collected by astronauts in 1972 now sits in the Oval Office. It’s on loan from the Lunar Sample Laboratory Facility at NASA’s Johnson Space Center and serves as a reminder: We’re going back to the Moon! Now, let’s just keep an eye on things and make sure NASA enjoys the same support from the Biden administration as they did from President Trump’s.

 

You all have a great day!

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