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Monday Afternoon Wx Update (Issued at 2:15)

WHAT: A strong to severe t-storm or two

MAIN THREAT: A damaging wind gust

THREAT TIME: 3:00 – 9:00

The Storm Prediction Center has finally placed much of the plateau in the marginal risk for severe storms for this afternoon and evening. Before now, they had just placed us in the general thunderstorm risk, though many of us questioned that. They have upgraded southern Middle Tennessee to slight risk.

The threat timeframe is so long because we have two threats. The first is from a warm front lifting northward at this hour. That front has kicked off a couple of severe t-storms along the Tennessee and Kentucky border. That batch of storms could move into the area within the next couple of hours, but looks to mainly affect areas along and north of I-40. It could develop farther south, so I’ll watch that.

A secondary threat will come with the cold front this evening.

My concern remains unchanged from this morning’s outlook. This continues to look like a low-end threat. Never the less, let’s not let our guard completely down.

As long as clouds and showers hang around, we’ll be in better shape.

The current radar does show some showers around, as the warm front continues to push northward. Once that front pushes through, temps will warm a few more degrees. If the warm front gets hung up on the plateau, as they sometimes do, we’ll stay cooler and more stable. As of now, I expect that front to push north of our area before the cold front arrives.

If you’ll notice that line of showers and storms in eastern Arkansas….that’s what I’m keeping the closest eye on. Those will arrive in about 5 hours or so. We’ll see how that intensifies as it moves eastward.

Again, this is not a widespread severe weather outbreak situation, but it only takes one or two strong storms in your neighborhood for this to be a big deal to you.

Stay weather-aware and I’ll keep watching things closely!

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