Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Sun., Jan 31

Headlines 

Light snow develops tonight

Snow showers likely for Monday

Next wet storm system arrives at the end of the week

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a chance for showers.

Tonight: Light snow develops. Light accumulation is possible.

Monday: Periods of light snow. Additional accumulation possible.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Showers develop overnight.

Friday: Showers likely.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy (Stay tuned. Some guidance suggest some snow flakes again by this point.)

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

Confidence is still rather high that we’ll see snow tonight and tomorrow. The bulk of the snow may hold off until sunrise Monday, continuing through the day. So, if you wake up and there’s not much snow just remember that much of the snow may fall during the day. Those of you across eastern Cumberland County might expect closer to the one inch range, while folks along the western edge of the plateau (Mayland, Monterey, Jamestown) pick up closer to 2″ (or more). I’m watching this VERY closely today, so stay tuned!

Meteorologist Mark’s Snow Day Scale (New!)

My thoughts remain unchanged from last night, with about a 50/50 shot of there being no school on Monday. I would say those chances are closer to 60% for Fentress and Overton Counties. Monterey usually gets a good snow from these scenarios and that could bode very well for Putnam County getting a snow day. Farther south, folks around Bledsoe County might have about a 30% chance. I’ll keep this updated today! Remember, this is based on my weather forecast. I can never forecast what school superintendents will ultimately decide (ha).

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

There’s a lot of information in the blog this morning, but it’s an active weather day! It’s also a tricky forecast. The culprit for tonight and tomorrow’s snowfall is an upper level low. Remember what I’ve said in the past….”an upper level low is a weatherman’s woe.” Boy, is that true! They are so challenging to forecast but we give it our best shot!

Much of the snowfall may hold off until Monday morning. By the afternoon, we could see some impressive snow showers around the area. These are the kind of snow showers that can put down a quick half inch of snow. The best chance for that kind of activitiy will be found north of the interstate.

So, look for some light snow to once again coat the plateau. Again, this is an especially challenging snow forecast and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little nervous (ha). We’ll see what happens!

A new storm system arrives by Thursday night, bringing more rain showers. There are some indications that we may be dealing with more wintry precip by Friday night and Saturday, but that’s in long-range weather voo-doo territory and we’ll tackle the specifics of that later.

On This Day in Wx History

1951- Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83″. This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville’s history. That is an incredible snow/ice-liquid water ratio! Normally, one inch of water equals about 10 inches of snow!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 94° at Falcon Lake, Texas 

Low: -21° at Edwards & North Hudson, New York

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Freezing rain will fall across portions of North Carolina today, transitioning to snow farther north, across Pennsylvania and southern New York state. That snow stretches back to Wisconsin and Minnesota. A major winter storm is evolving for many folks today! Meanwhile, a new storm system is moving onto onto the West Coast, with coastal flooding and mountain snow.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Accumulating snowfall can be found from Tennessee to New England. A wintry mix is expected in the Washington DC area, changing to very heavy snow for eastern Pennsylvania to southern Maine. A major winter storm continues for those folks. Farther west, a storm system continues to produce mountain snows, with the heaviest snow found in parts of northern California.

 Sunday Story

Regardless of what the groundhog says in February, this second month of the year can be quite a wild weather ride!

In February of 2015, a historic ice storm struck the Cumberland Plateau. More than an inch of ice paired up with wind gusts to 50 mph to leave more damage behind than what most tornadoes would produce.

The greatest one-day snowfall total recorded in Jamestown occurred on February 4, 1998. That was when 18 inches of snow fell in only 24 hours. When the last flake fell, a little over 20 inches of snow had fallen. During that event, Monterey and Livingston measured their greatest one-day snowfall with 12 and nine inches, respectively. Crossville officially measured 10 inches.

February can also bring severe thunderstorms. In fact, one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in Tennessee’s history struck on the night of February 5, 2008. Twenty-two people lost their lives near Gallatin, located just northeast of Nashville. I saw my first tornado that evening near Jackson, Tennessee. The violent EF-4 passed just one-half mile in front of me while storm chasing. 

The Leap Year of 2012 brought a February Leap Day tornado to northern Cumberland County. The community of Rinnie was hit by a devastating EF-2 tornado that was up to one mile wide at its widest point! The twister claimed two lives.  

In February, the seasons are just beginning to change and that means a battle between winter and spring begins. February temperature extremes have soared to near 80 degrees and plunged us below zero degrees. Rains can flood us over, ice us over, or freeze on the way down and snow us under! 

Yes, no matter what the Groundhog says we can always be certain of one thing when it comes to February; Anything can happen! 

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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