Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Fri., Feb 5

Happy National Weather Person’s Day!

Friday Funny

Headlines 

Accumulating snowfall likely Saturday night

A very unsettled, active week ahead

Pay close attention to the weather over the coming week

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Becoming sunny. A bit breezy in the morning.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Snow developing overnight. Accumulation likely.

Sunday: Morning snow chances, followed by sunny skies by afternoon.

Monday: Mostly sunny and pleasant.

Tuesday: A chance for showers.

Wednesday – Thursday: Chances for rain, snow and ice. Stay tuned.

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Much of tomorrow’s precip will fall after dark.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

I’m becoming increasingly confident that we’ll get accumulating snowfall from this system. If trends continue, I may adjust totals to the 2-4 inch range for the first time this season for an event. This is a challenging snowfall forecast (what snow forecast isn’t these days, right? ha), so stay tuned.

Meteorologist Mark’s Snow Day Forecast

Stay tuned. The Snow Day Forecast may come in handy again by the middle to end of next week!

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

I honestly struggled with today’s forecast. So much data to look at! (ha) But, that’s why you’re here….to see what my interpretation of all the data, coupled with my knowledge of this area. Still, sometimes I want to scream into a pillow while making our winter forecasts! LOL

I’m becoming more impressed with our Saturday night system. It may be in vain, but my concern is increasing for accumulating snowfall. If you have travel plans Saturday night (I’ll nail down timing later) or Sunday morning just be aware that the potential for slick roads is pretty high.

Then, there’s next week.

Just between you and me…don’t trust any forecast you see that goes beyond Tuesday. Ha! Here’s the deal….we have cold air coming down from Canada and there will be an active sub-tropical jet somewhere in the skies over the Deep South. For those who don’t know, the subtropical jet is similar to the polar jet that you’re familiar with, only it’s at a lower altitude and much more moist. It streams across the southern Pacific and across the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, I’ve seen too many situations where this scenario gives us freezing rain. That’s what we don’t want. If the cold air is thick enough, though, the precip will fall as snow. But, will there be precip here? That’s a big question right now. Just stay tuned. Models will get in better agreement (hopefully) as we get closer. I just wish I weren’t so concerned about freezing rain. Lord, let’s hope that’s not what we get a few days of! Of course, it may be a situation where rain chances turn to ice chances, which turn to snow chances as we go from Wednesday to Friday. Again, stay tuned and go ahead and start preparing for what could be a very wintry few days next week.

On This Day in Wx History

2008- One of the worst tornado outbreaks in Middle Tennessee history strikes during the evening and early morning of the 6th. Fourteen tornadoes touch down across the mid state, including an EF-3 that kills 22 persons in Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon Counties — the deadliest single tornado in Middle Tennessee in nearly 75 years. This is the 6th largest tornado outbreak in mid state history.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 94° at Zapata, Texas 

Low: -17° at Daniel, Wyoming

Today’s National Wx Hazards

Freezing rain falls across parts of New England, while heavy snow affects the Rockies.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

Freezing rain falls in the southern Appalachians. Farther north, accumulating snowfall can be found from Montana to New Jersey! Quite the swath of snow. A mix of rain and snow is what you see across Tennessee, which could change to snow for us at some point. Heavy snow continues to affect the northern Rockies.

 Weather Shots

On this day in 2008 I was storm chasing in West Tennessee and intercepted my first tornado! The EF-4 roared within a half of a mile of me and my storm chasing buddy Ross. The setup was a classic one….a screaming jet stream running over the top of a warm, humid airmass and a cold front marching in. Unfortunately, this proved to be one of the deadliest outbreaks for Tennessee in our recorded history. The combination of dangerous weather conditions in the winter time and at night left many folks surprised by the storms and ultimately unprepared.

NASA Nerdology 

It was during this week in 1948 that the Douglas D-558-II “Skyrocket” was first flown by test pilot John Martin. The Skyrocket was one of the early transonic research airplanes and later became the first to fly twice the speed of sound. Feelin’ the need for speed!

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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