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Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Sat., Feb. 6

Headlines 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY goes into effect at 6:00 pm

Snow develops tonight

An interesting and challenging forecast for next week

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Five-Day Forecast

Beginning today, the 7-day will be dropped to a 5-day. It takes a lot of time forecasting that sixth and seventh day and the accuracy is still pitiful, especially this time of year. I’d rather put more time into analyzing the data for a five-day outlook, rather than waste time on mediocre forecasting for that sixth and seventh day.

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Clouds increase. A mix of rain and snow develops by sunset, becoming all snow by 7:00 pm. Light accumulation likely by Sunday morning.

Sunday: A chance for morning snow, followed by gradually clearing skies.

Monday: Mostly sunny and pleasant.

Tuesday: Chance of showers.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy.

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

Guidance continues to lean toward higher snowfall totals for tonight. We should see 2 inches areawide, with some locations picking up closer to three inches. As is always the case, some of you may even get a bit more than that, while others stay closer to the two inch mark. I’ll keep you posted on any changes that may come today! This is the highest I’ve gone on this scale this winter season.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

The forecast for next week is such a headache that I just deleted the most challenging two days off the seven day. (haha) Seriously, I’ve been meaning to drop down to a five day outlook for some time now. Next week was the push I needed!

As for tonight, my confidence continues to grow that we’ll see a decent snow. I think most of us will see at least a couple of inches and it’s honestly hard not to go an inch higher. If I change anything today with updates, it will likely be to increase confidence in slightly higher snowfall totals. It just depends on how things evolve today.

Next week is a mess. Models are once again wanting to delay the cold air and put it off until Friday. Such a headache. I will say this, the models have consistency shown us getting very cold, with a good chance for a decent snowfall, but they keep putting it off and kicking the can down the road, so to speak. At this rate, we’ll get a Valentine’s Day snow. ha

I’ll keep an eye on next week and keep you posted. At this point, I’d say we’re in good shape through Wednesday. Beyond Thursday is anyone’s guess. Next week makes me want to get one of those weather beatles that Granny used to have on the Beverly Hillbillies.

On This Day in Wx History

1807 – It was the famous “Cold Friday” in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in all of Ohio and Kentucky!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 83° at Brighton, Miles City, & Sebring, Florida 

Low: -12° at Bottineau, North Dakota

Today’s National Wx Hazards

A very wintry day across the country! The greatest hazards can be found in the southern Appalachians, where a wintry mix- to -snow combination will occur. A swath of accumulating snowfall can be found stretching from New Jersey all the way to Montana! The heaviest of that snow will fall across the eastern faces of the Rockies, and again on the mountains just east of Seattle.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

The heaviest snow will fall across coastal New England on Sunday, though accumulating snowfall can be found throughout the Northeast and the Great Lakes Region. Another swath of snow can be found stretching from western Illinois to the northern Rockies.

 Weather Shots

Freeze and thaw conditions always lead to an increase of boulders sliding off mountain sides, such as this one in Colorado. Apparently, the sheriff was at a loss of words for how to describe the boulder. (haha) Point made, Sheriff! Also, that really is a LARGE boulder!

NASA Nerdology

During this week in 1971, the Apollo 14 lunar module landed on the moon! One primary objective for the crew was the collection of lunar samples. Over the course of the mission, the crew collected 94 pounds of rocks and soil to bring back to Earth.

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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