A complicated forecast
First shot of wintry weather Thursday night (esp areas north)
Wintry mix possible Saturday
Winter storm possible early next week
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog
Daily Forecast Summary
Today: Mostly cloudy and very mild. A spring-like day. Rain becomes likely overnight.
Thursday: Rain. Some of the rainfall could be heavy. Rain could mix with freezing rain for areas of mainly northern Fentress and northern Overton Counties.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder.
Saturday: A chance for a wintry mix of rain, freezing, sleet and snow. Precip should be on the light side.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy.
48-Hour Precip Forecast
Precip amounts will be light today and the first half of the night, picking up in coverage and intensity after midnight and all day Thursday and Thursday night.
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns
At this time, only a light glaze of ice appears possible for areas along and north of a line from Livingston to Jamestown for both tonight and Thursday night. I’ll keep a close eye on this. Be careful if you must be out tonight and/or tomorrow night, as bridges and overpasses could be a bit slick. The chance for any ice is about 30%.
Another system could bring a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow to the plateau on Saturday. Precip types and amounts are questionable at this time, though indications are that any precip will be on the lighter side. I’ll monitor this very closely and keep you posted. If you have travel plans on Saturday and especially Saturday night, be aware that wintry precip could impact roadways.
Meteorologist Mark’s Snow Day Forecast
MUCH of the icy weather will stay north and west of the plateau this go around. However, some of that rain could end as a wintry mix. If that lingers longer, roadways could have slick spots. At this time, that does not look likely, although areas or northern Overton and northern Fentress Counties could see some glazing of ice. I’ll keep an eye on that.
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion
A complicated forecast is in store for our area but that’s how February so often goes!
An arctic airmass is sitting to our north. This is the arctic air that many of us have been talking about for the past week or more. It is gradually oozing southward. The problematic characteristic about arctic air is that it’s very cold and it’s very shallow. That can allow warmer air to easily glide up and over it, producing freezing rain. That is what is happening across a large portion of the country today and tonight.
We are lucky this go around. By the time sub-freezing temps arrive, nearly all the moisture will be gone. That’s not to say we couldn’t see a glaze form on trees or even bridges Thursday night, but even that chance is quite slim for much of the plateau. We’re certainly NOT looking at an ice storm on the plateau from the precip that will fall tonight through Thursday night.
Saturday is a complicated forecast. Thankfully, precip looks light. I’m just not sure what exact form that precip will take. It will likely be a mixed bag of everything. I’ll keep an eye on it.
Early next week, a Gulf low will come barreling out of those warm Gulf waters. That will combine with an arctic air mass to produce a wide variety of precip across the South. Who gets what is the big question but nothing is off the table. I’ll keep a very close eye on this.
On This Day in Wx History
1899- Temperature at Nashville drops to -7 degrees during the second coldest February on record. It’s the lowest reading ever observed on this date. The high temperature tops out at a mere 10 degrees, a record “cool high.”
Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes
High: 92° at Rio Grande Village, Texas
Low: -35° at Land O’Lakes, Wisconsin
Today’s National Wx Hazards
A swath of freezing rain can be found from Texas to Virginia. North of that activity, a swath of snow can be found stretching from the Pacific Northwest to New England.
Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards
Freezing rain sags southward, creating hazardous conditions for many folks in that purple-shaded region. Heavy snow can be found in the Rockies.
I’m still missing my winter wonderland but I may not have to wait long for another shot at it…..
China’s Tianwen-1 mission successfully entering Mars orbit today! We can’t wait to see what we learn from that data! We know so much about the Red Planet, but there are so many more mysteries to solve….