I just wanted to do a quick update and let you all know that trends are in our favor tonight. I wrote the blog post “Best/Worst Scenario” earlier this afternoon. You may have noted that I gave both the best and worst case scenarios a 20% chance of working out. I am now increasing the chance for the best case scenario to 30% for those of you across the southern half of Cumberland County. I hope this trend continues and that I can increase that confidence even more and for even more people. I know that’s only a 30% chance but I knew it would make you all feel better to know that trends are, for the first time, starting to look better for us.
Let’s hope the system pulls up enough warm air to spare us all!
I continue to think that Sunday night will be quite icy around here. That would spill over into Monday morning. I still think ice storm criteria could be met at this time (1/4″ of ice). Precip looks light but it could be enough to cause some big troubles, especially on the roadways. Those of us in northern Cumberland County, eastern Putnam, and all of Overton and Fentress Counties are most susceptible to ice accumulations Sunday night, since we still have ice in our trees from this weekend’s freezing drizzle. I doubt any of that melts on Sunday.
Like I’ve mentioned earlier, we could get a break later Monday morning and that’s when temps may rise above freezing and spare us from the afternoon assault of precip. Finger crossed!
I expect to trend my Monday night forecast snowfall totals downward. I wondered if I was too aggressive in today’s updates and I’m now rather confident that I should cut those forecast totals down to 1-2 inches.
I’ll have a full blog update in the morning with all the latest charts and graphs and explanations! You all take care and let’s hope and pray the good trend continues!
Thanks Mark!