Meteorologist Mark’s Valentine’s Day Wx Blog

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Headlines 

Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle this morning. Watch for black ice!

Winter Storm Warning for Sunday night & Monday (snow & ice)

Worst/Best Case Scenario added at the bottom, with some edits from yesterday’s posting of that.

I’ll keep you posted on any changes!

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Five-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy. Morning freezing drizzle.

Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet. Winter storm conditions.

Monday: Winter storm conditions. Expect ice, sleet, and snow.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Overnight wintry mix possible.

Thursday: Rain likely. Monitoring.

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

I continue to be confident that we will see ice storm conditions tonight and Monday across the plateau. Some of us in the northern end of Cumberland, eastern Putnam, and across Overton and Fentress Counties already have a good layer of ice from freezing drizzle over the weekend (some of us never warmed above freezing).

I went ahead and lowered my snow totals but stay tuned. I now expect sleet to cut down on our snow. If that changes, our snow total will change.

Meteorologist Mark’s Snow Day Forecast

Area roadways are slick this morning from freezing drizzle . Be careful.

Temps will prevent any recovery by Tuesday of area roads. If the roads are bad Monday evening, they’ll be bad on Tuesday, too.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

This continues to be a very complex forecast, with different areas of the plateau likely to experience vastly different impacts from this storm. The effects of our various microclimates will be quite pronounced! The area of least concern for me is across southern Cumberland County. I think you all may warm above freezing Monday afternoon and that will really help you all out. Let’s hope you do.

As for the rest of us, I’m not sure we’ll ever get to 33 degrees. The past few days have proven that those of us in northern Cumberland and eastern Putnam Counties are colder spots these days. I have ice over half an inch thick on some trees out in the open because I haven’t been above freezing in days. This freezing drizzle keeps accumulating. That’s not even accounted for in NWS forecasts because this is in isolated instances. It’s an interesting situation, for sure.

I’ll keep you all posted. My confidence continues to be high that we will be significantly impacted by this winter storm.

Some good news this morning is that the storm at the end of the week is looking warmer. Let’s hope that holds true.

On This Day in Wx History

2004 – Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine’s Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Almanac

*33* Days until Spring (New!)

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 89° at Sebring, Florida 

Low: -50° at Ely, Minnesota

Today’s National Wx Hazards

A wintry mess across the country! Freezing rain will fall across the South, while heavy snow falls across the southern plains and Midwest. More snow can be found across the Pacific Northwest. Severe thunderstorms threaten central Florida.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

A big winter storm in the eastern US and a big winter storm across the western US. Severe storms threaten Florida once again.

Worst Cast/Best Case Scenario

I posted this yesterday afternoon and it’s still relevant today. The only change I made was to increase the likelihood of the best case scenario for the southern half of Cumberland County (mainly south of Interstate 40) to 30%. I have decided not to increase that percentage this morning, nor will I expand the areal coverage of that confidence. I have made a few edits.

What: Freezing rain & sleet (up to 1/4 inch of ice)

When: Wintry precip begins shortly after sunset Sunday

Good point: A break in the precip is possible from mid-morning to around noon on Monday. Temps may warm above freezing, melting some of the morning ice.

Great point: There will be little to no wind.

Round 2:

This could be the most serious part of the storm.

What: Freezing Rain (up to 1/4 inch of ice) (Depends on if temps rise above freezing or not)

When: Monday afternoon and evening

Good point: This comes in the afternoon, when temps are warmest. Just one degree can make a big difference in impacts.

Great point: There will be little to no wind.

Round 3:

What: Snow (up to 1-2 inches)

When: Monday night

Good point: A transition to snow cuts down on ice. Snow is FAR less destructive and easier to drive on.

Great point: Winds will remain light.

Worst Case Scenario:

We don’t get a break Monday morning and precip is more than anticipated. This would take ice totals into the 1/2 – 3/4 inch territory. Even in the worst case scenario, I still don’t see widespread 1″ amounts of ice, like we did in 2015.

Also, even in the worst case scenario I still don’t see us getting gusty winds. That will significantly reduce the damage from the ice.

*In a worst case scenario, we end up with around 3/4 inch of ice and up to 4 inches of snow on top of that. (Chance of this happening at about 20%)

Best Case Scenario:

  1. The storm pulls up warmer air and the afternoon and evening freezing rain potential turns to plain rain. That would nearly avoid an ice storm in the afternoon, although the morning ice would still be troublesome.
  2. The wrap-around snowfall is lighter than expected (or mixes heavily with sleet) and we only get one inch-or-less of snow Monday night.
  3. Sleet mixing in at all times, keeping both ice and snow totals lower.

*In a best case scenario, we end up with less than 1/4 inch of ice (below ice storm criteria) and only a dusting of snow on top of that. (Chance of this happening at about 20%) (30% for those of you south of I-40 in Cumberland County)

**Please not that worse conditions are expected west of the plateau (Monterey–Cookeville–Nashville), with better conditions east of the plateau (Harriman–Knoxville)

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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