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Winter Wx Update (Issued 2:00 pm Tues)

The National Weather Service plans to issue a winter storm watch for all of middle Tennessee for Wednesday night and Thursday. They’re working on that now, so expect to hear about that just any time now.

The time period of greatest impact areawide should be Wednesday night. Those impacts will likely remain high for Fentress, Overton and Putnam Counties through Thursday. This threat will likely begin shortly after dark Wednesday. I highly recommend being home, safe and sound, by nightfall Wednesday.

Also, keep in mind that colder spots on the plateau are liable to have higher impacts. If you’re typically a colder spot (ie Crab Orchard, Rinnie, Mayland, Monterey), then expect slightly higher impacts.

The following chart is one I’m focused on the most. This outlines the general timeline and precip types expected. Keep in mind that this chart could change, so stay tuned. I have added a few edits from this morning, in lieu of the most recent data. A few more tweaks are likely as we get closer to the event.

My confidence in some of us picking up as much as 1/4 inch of ice has increased just a bit. The criteria for an ice storm is 1/4 inch or more. Some of us may reach that threshold before it changes to plain rain, especially in areas north of the interstate (ie. Fairfield glade, Mayland, Pleasant Hill, Rinnie, Fentress, Overton, and Putnam Counties). If you live south of the interstate you may once again fare better in this storm, due to temps rising to near or just above freezing (areas of Homestead, Tansi, etc.).

My expectations for snow are unchanged from the morning blog update. I would have raised totals but I believe sleet will mix in and sleet always cuts down on accumulation. The only exception is for areas of northern Fentress and northern Overton Counties, where more than double this amount might be expected (2-4 inches).

The NWS Nashville shared the slide below during the conference call at 11:00 today. The map shows what happened with this last storm. The red line is where I thought the farthest north extend of the ice would be. We were so lucky across Cumberland County and southern Fentress County this time! I just got a text saying power would be out indefinitely to many residents of Putnam and Overton Counties.

With this new storm, that red line is once again where I’m focusing. It looks like those of us basically along and north of the interstate will fare worse than those of you south of the interstate. For perspective, the Wal-Mart in Crossville, as well as Cracker Barrel, are south of the intestate. Lord, if that’s not a southern example of directions I don’t know what is! (LOL)

The winter weather advisory map is once again lighting up! I captured this screen shot at 1:00 pm. The pink across the southern plains represents more winter storm warnings. The advisory for West Tennessee is a winter storm watch….again. It seems like just yesterday that we were dealing with a very similar winter storm…….wait a minute….THAT WAS YESTERDAY! (ha)

Finally, I’m having to get creative with the “snow day scale” because of the different weather across the plateau. This is my best guess, at this point. I’ll update this later today.

I’ll have another special blog update around 9:00 pm this evening, or as needed. That will give me time to analyze new data and to give you the latest on my thoughts. Stay tuned for that!

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