Storms have struggled, as they do when the atmosphere doesn’t support them like they would prefer to be supported. We had warm and humid air here at the surface, but things aloft just weren’t very supportive.
The Storm Prediction Center just issued a special discussion for our area (red-outlined area) stating that they feel like the severe thunderstorm watch should be allowed to expire at 10:00 pm. They feel like the atmosphere is stabilizing and that the threat will no longer warrant a watch. I agree.
As I’ve said all along, the atmospheric dynamics have never impressed me and they continue to not impress me. Temps are cooling a bit with nightfall and that is helping stabilize things, as well. That bodes well for us. I had wondered why the watch ended at 10:00, since storms would be coming even after that point. But, those storms, as I mentioned earlier today, are expected to continue to weaken as they approach the plateau tonight.
We do have a lot of rain yet to come. I would expect 1-2 inches or rain area-wide. The heavy rain continues to be the greater threat, especially if you live in a flood-prone area. On the radar below, I highlighted the border of Cumberland County, for reference. That’s a lot of rain coming.
I’ll continue to watch things. Even if the watch expires at 10:00, we could still have a strong or severe storm pop up somewhere. It would just be so isolated and brief that a watch for the whole area would not be warranted.
This will be my final update for the evening, unless otherwise needed. You all sleep well and enjoy the sounds of a rainy night.