Good evening, everyone. As you know, severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. After sitting in on some NWS conference calls, analyzing the data throughout the day, and reading the thoughts of area NWS offices (especially the ones surrounding our area), my confidence is increasing that we’ll see severe thunderstorms in our neck of the woods Wednesday. I am especially concerned about the overnight event that could unfold.
There are two scenarios to watch for and they both depend on the warm front that will be coming up from the south. Remember, if you find yourself in the warm sector, south of the warm front, your airmass becomes very humid and unstable, especially if the sun comes out. If you’re north of the warm front the atmosphere will be more stable. Basically, we’re tracking the warm front on Wednesday to see what our threat will be.
Scenario #1: The warm front stalls across Middle Tennessee. This places us in a situation where heavy rainfall would be the main threat. There would be a risk for severe storms, but rainfall would dominate and the tornado risk would be lower. In this scenario, we stay cloudy and rainy and more stable.
Scenario #2: The warm front moves into Kentucky. This places the plateau in the warm sector and causes our atmosphere to destabilize to the point to where tornadoes would be a threat that we would have to be very mindful of. Large hail would also be a threat. In this scenario, we see a break in the rain during the afternoon, with possible peaks of sun, leading to severe storms in the evening and after dark, though timing is still being worked out. This would likely lead to a severe weather outbreak.
Right now, I’d give scenario #1 about a 40% chance of happening and scenario #2 about a 60% chance. I hope to see those numbers change for the better in tomorrow’s data. If you needed something to pray for tonight……
Also, with all this being said, the threat is still highest across West Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and the southern half of Middle Tennessee.
Some of my concerns are that a supercell will develop in southern Middle Tennessee and track our way. That is hopefully something that does not happen.
As you all know, our weather can change quickly on the plateau and things have a way of not panning out sometimes. The warm front could easily get hung up on the plateau and save the day. That would keep us in rain and clouds and away from the most severe weather. That would be great!
And, as I told the kids in tonight’s Meteorologist Mark weather class, tornadoes are very rare. Even in the worst outbreaks, the chances of YOU being directly impacted by such a storm is extremely low. Never the less, you want a plan, just in case. I made a post Sunday afternoon that you should check out, if you haven’t already.
I’d also like you to see https://www.ready.gov/plan. It’s a wonderful site that will help you prepare for ANY storm that comes this spring. Check it out with the family.
Make your severe weather plan NOW. Don’t wait until storms are bearing down on us. Have a plan in place. Live in a mobile home? You can’t stay there during a tornado warning. Call your neighbor with a house and ask if you can come over for a few minutes if a warning issued. You don’t have to take shelter for the duration of the severe weather event. You only take cover when a warning is issued and they only last about half an hour to an hour. Don’t wait until it’s 2:00 am and storming to realize you have no plan. Perhaps an area church has a shelter? If so, let me know and I’ll pass that info along!
As you all know, I’m watching all of this very, very carefully. This is what I do. I grew up here and have studied under some of the best severe weather experts in field. I take this very seriously and will do my absolute best to bring you the best info and forecast.
You all have a good evening and let’s hope for better weather news tomorrow! Meanwhile, get to working on that severe weather plan. If we don’t use it this time, we’re sure to need it again this spring.
I’ll have a full update in the morning. Good night.