I will issue a special afternoon blog post at 1:00 to update you on tomorrow’s severe storm potential. Stay tuned for that. Remember, to get updates sent straight to email, just follow the blog by finding that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of your screen. Thank you!
A nice Tuesday
A stormy Wednesday
Be weather aware on Wednesday
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog
Daily Forecast Summary
Today: Becoming partly cloudy. Mild.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy and some of the storms could be severe.
Thursday: Showers likely. Cooler.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and beautiful.
48-Hour Precip Forecast
Meteorologist Mark’s 5-Day Wx Concerns
The greatest threat for severe storms on Wednesday looks to be in the noon to midnight timeframe. I’ll update that timing as we get closer to the event. The threat increases the later into the day we go, possibly maximizing from sunset to midnight.
The status of my concern, as well as the level of my concern, are left unchanged from yesterday. There are still almost as many indications that the warm front will move north of us as there are indications that the front will stay south of us. I’ll keep a very close eye on that situation and I’ll keep you posted!
At this time, our area is in the slight risk for severe storms, as issued by the Storm Prediction Center. This threat would increase if the warm front moves farther north. It will stay slight if the warm front stays upon us or just to our south.
Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion
A complex weather pattern will evolve tomorrow across much of the southern U.S. Data this morning continues to show the two-scenario situation I mentioned in last night’s special blog post. The chances of either scenario are unchanged from last night. Hopefully, there will be better guidance as we go through today concerning the position of that warm front. Remember, the position of that warm front when the cold front comes through is key in determining what level of severe threat we find ourselves in.
The greatest threat for severe storms will be across eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee and southern Middle TN, northern Mississippi, and northern Alabama. That part of the forecast has been consistent from day one. Those areas look to be hard hit, no matter where the warm front ends up. That is why those areas are already in the moderate risk for severe weather for tomorrow. That moderate risk is just south of where the Storm Prediction Center thinks the warm front will be located. In other words, at this time, they’re thinking the warm front will stall across Tennessee (where the yellow shaded area is in TN, representing the slight risk zone. That’s better news for us, worse news for folks to our west and southwest. Just imagine some of that shifting northeastward if the warm front also moves northeastward.
I should note that even if the warm front keeps us cloudy and rainy all day, our severe threat will still not be zero. It will be lower, but not zero. Wednesday and Wednesday evening are certainly weather-aware times. I’ll be watching it all for you!
On This Day in Wx History
1942- An F-3 tornado clears a 55 mile path in Hickman County (southwest of Nashville), starting near Huntington, and just missing the towns of Mansfield, Manlyville, and Springville. In Stewart County, near Stribling, “the soil [is] swept away,” along with a house in which a boy is killed, and seven other people are injured. Eight farms are torn apart near Lick Creek. There are a total of 5 fatalities, and 68 injuries. An F-3 tornado strikes Humphreys County, destroying a half dozen homes in the Hurricane-Bold Springs area. The storm continues into Cheatham County, producing an F-3 tornado, which passes near Cooperstown, destroying at least a dozen barns and littering the landscape with dead chickens. At least a dozen homes are destroyed. Damage estimate is $100,000. Three persons are killed in the two counties, with another 30 injuries.
3 Days until Spring!
Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes
High: 90° at Zapata, Texas
Low: -26° at Mount Washington, New Hampshire
Today’s National Wx Hazards
Flash flooding threatens portions of the Deep South. Farther north, freezing rain threatens portions of Pennsylvania and southern New York state, as well as parts of Iowa. Severe thunderstorms will overspread the southern plains as we go through the day, while accumulating snow will fall across the Front Range of the Rockies. Warm and dry winds will lead to a wildfire danger across eastern New Mexico and western Texas.
Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards
A severe weather outbreak will unfold across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, extending eastward across much of the Southeast. Flooding rainfall will be a concern across some of these same areas, as well as across much of Missouri and eastern Kansas. Freezing rain continues to threaten portions of Iowa.