6:30 Wed Severe Wx Update

Special Note: I have developed quite the following on social media! That is awesome! What is not awesome is that I can no longer keep up with comments and PMs. Thankfully, about 99% of all questions and concerns have already been answered right here in the blog. I THANK YOU for following along! You sure can tell who follows the blog and who doesn’t by looking at my social media questions and comments! ha

Headline: The warm front continues to slowly lift north. This will place much of the plateau in the warm sector ahead of the cold frontal passage later tonight. Areas along and south of Interstate 40 look to have the better chance for severe storms. Areas north of Interstate 40 will likely have a lower threat, though that threat will not be zero.

WHAT: Strong to severe thunderstorms, with all modes of severe weather possible, including an isolated tornado.

WHEN: 6:00pm – 6:00am (all night). The highest threat may come in the 10:00pm – 2:00am timeframe.

A complex weather pattern has evolved this evening. Numerous supercells are developing across the Deep South, with our area seeing widespread shower and thunderstorms from a warm front passing through. As explained in my previous post, this warm frontal passage will increase wind shear overnight, giving storms an environment capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and even an isolated tornado.

The dewpoint is a measure of moisture/energy and I’ve noticed ours increasing, which is what you expect with a warm front moving through. We typically look for dewpoints in the mid 50s or higher for severe storms. Crossville is currently at 58 degrees, which is up a degree since a couple of hours ago.

A new tornado watch will soon be issued for parts of southern Middle TN. As the night goes along, those watches may be extended into parts of our area.

The rain we’ve had today has stabilized our atmosphere for now, but with such volatile condition so nearby, that could quickly change. The NWS Nashville is advising of storms that could develop and quickly become severe later this evening. Let’s hope the more stabilized atmosphere holds!

My concern is being lowered just a bit, based on some new data I’ve just come across. There’s still much to be concerned with, but I feel like I can lower my concern just a bit. I’m also still concerned with this being an overnight event. We can also hope that all the severe weather to our south drains our atmosphere of energy. That sometimes happens too and I’m counting on that to a limited degree.

So, I’ll keep watching things and hoping for things to trend even better. I’m noticing a line developing west of Memphis now. It will be interesting to see how that progresses. If that line struggles in West TN, we can feel better about it struggling here. I’ll keep an eye on things.

The next update will come at 9:00pm, or as needed. You all take care.

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