Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Blog for Wed., Mar 17

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Headlines 

A special update is coming at 2:00 this afternoon, or as needed.

A weather-aware day, starting at noon

Strong to severe storms possible today and tonight

Severe threat ends early Friday morning

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

48-Hour WX

Five-Day Forecast

Today is a weather-aware day

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: Be Weather Aware! Showers and storms develop, mainly in the afternoon. Some storms could be severe.

Tonight: Be Weather Aware! Showers and storms. Some storms could be severe. Breezy.

Thursday: Showers likely.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Cooler.

The Weekend: Sunny and beautiful! Plan to get outside!

48-Hour Precip Forecast

Meteorologist Mark’s 5-Day Wx Concerns

We need to be weather-aware throughout the day and night. A warm front lifting north this afternoon and will produce showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. Tonight, a cold front will bring another round of storms, some of which could be severe. The greatest risk for severe weather comes tonight. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

There are two things to watch for today and one of those is a warm front lifting northward this morning. That’s the culprit for the showers and storms you see across West TN this morning. That front could produce some strong to severe storms as it lifts north. Our threat will likely hold off until after noon. Quite often, the main threat with warm frontal passages is large hail and damaging straight-line winds, though they can produce isolated tornadoes.

Tonight, the second and greater threat arrives…..a cold front. We’ll be watching this activity very closely overnight. Wind profiles will be favorable for rotating thunderstorm updrafts, and some of those will try to make contact with the ground. I’ll be tracking that very, very closely and keeping you updated.

There is a weather conference call today with the National Weather Service at 11:00 that I’ll be sitting in on and I’ll update you this afternoon at 2:00 with that information, along with more data that will be coming in between now and then, so stay tuned for that important update.

I should note that some guidance continues to suggest that the warm front will be too slow to move northward and that we will be along and/or north of that front. IF that solution comes true, we’ll be in better shape. I am currently still leaning toward the warm getting into Kentucky, but I’ll monitor that closely. Regardless, the threat will never be zero today, but let’s hope for lower!

On This Day in Wx History

1892- Nashville records its greatest one-day snowfall ever, measuring 17″. The snow starts after midnight, and continues until noon. Members of the Ancient Order of Hibernians in America cancel their annual parade. No street cars are running. Morning trains are delayed. Suburban workers have to walk to town. Mailmen don’t leave the post office on their rounds until 10:00 a.m. A freight train from Chattanooga slides off the track at the Winton community, near Murfreesboro, and a passenger train from Memphis due at 7:00 a.m. doesn’t arrive until 2:00 p.m. Riddleton, a few miles northwest of Carthage, receives 18.7″, in what is believed to be the greatest single-day snowfall in Middle Tennessee’s history.

Almanac

Solar/Lunar Data 

2 Days until Spring!

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High: 95° at Rio Grande Village, Texas 

Low: -14° at Baker Lake, Maine

Today’s National Wx Hazards

An outbreak of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected today across the South. Some of these storms will likely contain long-track, damaging tornadoes. Aside from the severe threat, flash flooding will also be a threat.

Tomorrow’s National Wx Hazards

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms continues eastward, affecting a large area from Florida to West Virginia and Maryland. All modes of severe weather are likely.

NASA Nerdology 

Between 1968 and 1971, Pan Am issued more than 90,000 “First Moon Flights” Club cards to Americans who wanted to make a reservation for the first commercial flight to the Moon.

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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