I just wanted to jump on here for a minute and let you know that our severe storm threat remains low for Thursday. With that being said, we are very warm and humid for April. That does raise some red flags, so we can’t completely let our guard down. The most important ingredients are often those found in the atmosphere. Those are missing tomorrow. We’ve got the ingredients for severe storms with this warm and humid air here at the surface, but the support for storms aloft is seriously lacking.
Never the less, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe storms for much of Middle Tennessee for Thursday. This is not a severe weather outbreak event, but one or two strong to severe storms are possible. If that one storm is over your house, it’s a big deal kinda day to you! The marginal risk is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories.
Our tornado chances are zero, according to the Storm Prediction Center. I’m not sure I’d ever go that low in April in Tennessee but that’s what they have. At this very moment there is a tornado warning just west of Clarksville, TN, in a “zero chance for tornadoes” outlook by the SPC. The SPC misses a few of those from time to time.
The Clarksville storm is the only storm in all of Tennessee right now. It looks impressive on radar and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it produce something. This is just an isolated, rotating thunderstorm that just popped up this evening. The storm is absolutely no threat to the plateau.
RadarScope shows this very isolated storm (circled). Again, this is near Clarksville and is no threat to the plateau. None. If, however, you know someone who lives in the Clarksville area, you might want to make sure they know about this.
I zoomed in on the storm. Notice the “fish hook” look, indicating rotation. The SPC has a zero chance for tornadoes there right now. Again, they miss one every now and then (In their defense, they are VERY busy this time of year!) UPDATE: The warning has just been extended eastward from what you see here.
So, let’s not worry too much about tomorrow and tomorrow night’s storms, but let’s not be completely unguarded. If we had the atmospheric dynamics in place tomorrow we’d be in serious trouble. Thankfully, that part of the equation is lacking and that part of the equation is arguably the most important part.
You all have a nice evening. I’ll have a full weather update in the morning!