I wanted to update you all on the storm potential that we face this week. First of all, things should be alright for tonight. The severe weather is to our south right now, across Mississippi and Alabama. The airmass down there is much more unstable than ours, which is giving their storms quite the kick. Our concern comes tomorrow.
Monday will be a weather aware day. The situation is such that we will probably not see much, if any, severe weather tomorrow in Middle Tennessee. BUT, if a storm gets going it could pack a punch. We’ve been through scenarios like this many times before. We’re likely to see nothing happen, but if something does happens it will demand our attention. My concern is low but not zero for tomorrow.
Then, Monday night comes. That’s another window of opportunity for severe storms, though we will likely make it through the night without problems. THIS is the perfect scenario to have a weather radio. You could stay up all night and see if something happens (which it probably won’t), OR you could go to bed with your weather radio on and be awakened if something does happen.
Tuesday is our most concerning day and that could be a concern that sticks with us through the day. There are a couple of things that I’ve noticed with model data that may work in our favor. First, morning rain and storms Tuesday could stabilize the atmosphere. We’ve been on the fortuitous end of that kind of scenario many times this spring and in the past. Second, big storms in Alabama may rob our atmosphere of energy (we’ve seen that happen many times this year too!).
So, severe weather is certainly a concern for our area the next couple of days but it is not a slam dunk. We’ve now entered a period of very unsettled weather that will keep us weather aware for a couple of days. We are in the marginal risk for severe storms for Monday and the slight risk for severe storms for Tuesday. Both risks could increase, so stay tuned. Thankfully, the tornado risk appears low for the next couple of days (but not zero). Never the less, the hail and straight-line wind threat is nothing to dismiss.
I’m attaching a link to a radar from Nashville. Since our weather will be coming from the west and southwest, the Middle TN radar will serve us well. https://www.newschannel5.com/weather/radar
I’ll have a full update in the morning!