MM’s Mon Wx Blog for May 3

Weather Headlines

Strong/severe storms possible today

Strong/severe storms possible tonight

Greatest risk for severe storms comes Tuesday

A special update coming at 8:00 pm this evening.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

Unavailable today.

Five-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary

Today: A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any storm that develops could be strong and could produce heavy rainfall.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms. Any storm could be strong to severe. Heavy rainfall is again possible.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe and rainfall could be heavy.

Wednesday & Thursday: A chance for showers. Much cooler.

Friday: Partly cloudy and continued cool.

Meteorologist Mark’s 5-Day Wx Concerns

My concern for today is low but not zero. Our atmosphere could support a strong to severe storm.

The risk for strong storms continues overnight, though the risk for severe storms remains low-end (as it appears right now). It’s a good night to have a weather radio to wake you up in case something does develop. Otherwise, you can sleep.

The severe storm threat is greatest for Tuesday. We will all need to be weather-aware from morning to evening, due to several rounds of storms that are possible.

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Discussion

I went ahead and made today a weather-aware day, just owing to the nature of this atmosphere. Plus, this system has already overperformed with storm potential in the Deep South yesterday. We’ll be cautious of that today in our neck of the woods. Plus, any storm that develops could lead to flash flooding, and that’s always a hazard to be aware of.

Tonight, the severe risk remains, though it continues to look like a low-end risk. I’ll do a special update this evening at 8:00.

The greatest threat comes Tuesday and that threat will likely be with us all day long, so there’s no specific timing just yet. Hopefully I can give a better idea on timing with this evening’s update.

I want to note that we should never pay too much attention to marginal, slight, moderate, etc risks that we are put in from time to time. A risk is a risk. Yesterday, Mississippi saw more destructive tornadoes in their slight risk than they ever saw with any high risk they’ve had this spring. When the Cookeville tornado happened last year, we were in the marginal risk. Don’t focus on the category or risk, focus on the fact that you’re in the risk. Just because one or two severe storms are expected doesn’t mean that one storm won’t be over your house.

Almanac for Yesterday

On This Day in Wx History

1999 – On May 3, 1999, an unusual confluence of atmospheric conditions in Oklahoma spawned dozens of tornadoes that swept across the state in an hours-long parade of destruction. Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed, and 19 counties became disaster areas. The worst toll was in human lives: 44 dead, including three children. Hundreds more were injured. One of the tornadoes was sampled by the Doppler on Wheels, with radar-indicated winds of over 300 mph!

48 Days until Summer

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High:  104° at Zapata, Texas

Low:   17° at Bridgeport, California 

Today’s Tennessee Weather 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible statewide. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially across West Tennessee. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Tonight’s Tennessee Weather 

The threat for strong to severe storms continues into the night, especially for West and Middle Tennessee. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado are all possible in the overnight hours. Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Tomorrow’s Tennessee Weather 

Strong to severe storms are possible once again on Tuesday, though the threat is much higher than what we will see Monday or Monday night. All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes. A strong cold front will make its way across the state, clashing with an unseasonably warm and humid airmass. Heavy rainfall is also possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Today’s National Weather Map

Strong to severe storms will threaten an area from the Panhandle of Texas to Kentucky. All modes of severe weather are possible. Another heightened risk area can be found across east central Alabama to the North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor is updated each Thursday.

NASA Nerdology 

This was the Resilience spacecraft over the Gulf of Mexico, moments before splashdown. The four Astronauts splashed into the Gulf of Mexico in a rare nighttime splashdown Saturday night. Everything went smooth as silk!

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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