The atmosphere is quite unstable but there’s nothing to kick start any storms….just yet.
This is one of those situations where everything down here at the surface is ripe for thunderstorms, but there’s nothing to kick this air up into the atmosphere. Sometimes a front does that, like what we’ll see tomorrow. Sometimes winds increase way up high in the sky. An increase in winds up there, causes the air to rise down here. If we could lift this warm and humid air up into the atmosphere, we would get storms.
So when will that happen? That’s a big question mark right now. It’s like boiling a pot of water on the stove and trying to figure out when the first bubble will come to the top. The atmosphere is primed, we’re just waiting to see when (if?) and where the storms pop. The Storm Prediction Center has increased our threat for severe storms for tonight and that’s something I’ll have to watch closely. This may be a situation where we make it through most of the night without much of anything happening. It’s a good night to have a weather radio because you can sleep and know that if anything does happen, the alarm will sound to wake you up. I have more tips at the end of this post.
Short-term models show isolated thunderstorms developing across Middle TN from anytime now through the night. The very latest run shows storms firing off around midnight across Middle TN, though that is questionable. A more organized cluster of storms may push in during the morning from the west. Those storms could pose a risk for severe weather.
Then, we’ll be weather-aware through the day Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the threat for all of us for tomorrow. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the possibility for a tornado.
Remember, before you go to bed make sure you’re ready to spring into action, if needed. Keep shoes by the bed, so you can easily slip them on. Make sure everyone’s helmets are ready and easy to find (keep in mind it will be dark and plan for this to happen with no electricity, just in case). Have that whistle and flashlight handy (perhaps a little flashlight on a lanyard with the whistle?). Is your safe spot cleaned out and ready to dive into? Go ahead and get it ready, just in case you need it. Have multiple ways to get warnings. Have apps on the phone and make sure your phone isn’t silenced to those apps when you go to sleep. The Red Cross Tornado app is a good one and there are others from local TV stations (WATE Knoxville has a good one!). Have someone call or text you to make sure you heard the warning.
Make sure your safe place is on the lowest level of the home, away from windows, with as many walls as you can get between you and the outside. Make it so that the wind can’t find you.
Live in a mobile home? Have a plan to flee that home on a moment’s notice. You cannot stay in a mobile home, no matter what. Period. Work something out with the neighbors right now. You don’t want to be frantically banging on their door at 2:00 a.m., wishing you had told them this could happen.
The overall tornado threat is low but it’s not zero. You just gotta be ready in case that one bad storm is in your neighborhood, especially in the middle of the night.
So, the bottom line is that my concern for tonight is low but not zero. The atmosphere may just simmer until the front comes through tomorrow. Or, and this is what we’re weather-aware for tonight, it sends up a firework or two tonight ahead of the main show tomorrow.
My concern increases for Tuesday. We are all under the threat for severe storms on Tuesday. The front doesn’t clear out until later tomorrow, leaving us in a risk through the day.
Finally, make sure your weather radio is turned on. I know that sounds silly but a lot of folks turn them off when they don’t need them. Plus, there was a day this week when they made weird beeping noises and some of you all may have turned it off. Turn it back on. Push the weather button and make sure you can hear the voice of the National Weather Service (NWS). You may have to move it around for better reception. If you can’t hear the NWS, you’re not on the right channel (162.400 mhz).
I’ll be up and keeping an eye on things. If something comes up that you need to know about I’ll jump on here and tell ya. If the weather radio goes off, jump online and I’ll let you know what’s going on. You all take care!
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I’ve got my weather station fired up and I’m ready for whatever Ma Nature throws our way!