MM’s Wed Wx Blog for May 12

Weather Headlines

Below normal temps through Friday (normals are 72/52)

Models continue to trend drier for the next several days

Becoming unsettled again next again (but much warmer!)

Note

Registration for the MM kids class continues! I still have a few spots open. Find more info and the link to register at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd0z-3iNgJh4ZlmWC3EhPbXcujTPO48ohRjbF6G7ZJcHBV4Iw/viewform

The first MM class for the adults is now being offered! Class is filling fast! That class will be May 24th at 5:00 pm at TCAT. The cost is $10 for each adult (donations welcome) and every dime of that goes to fund materials for the kids classes offered each month. For more information and to register, please go to https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSerEXmW6Ofxyw6NWwHhDPg4QmcEqd85jLKj5JpB5dG7VXUUiA/viewform

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Vlog 

Seven-Day Forecast

Daily Forecast Summary/Discussion

Below-normal temps will be with us a few more days, but thankfully it’s looking like we’ll be dry. I can’t rule out a stray sprinkle or shower (thus, the 10% rain chances) but a great many of us will stay dry and cool.

I had wondered if we’ll see some scattered frost tonight, but I think we might stay warm enough to dodge that. Never the less, if you live in a traditionally colder spot, you might be aware that frost isn’t completely impossible.

Unsettled weather returns next week but temps will be much, much warmer. That, of course, means we’ll be keeping an eye on severe storm chances. Right now, those chances look best out on the plains. I’ll keep an eye on it and make sure it stays out there!

Meteorologist Mark’s Wx Concerns

Almanac for Yesterday

Sun & The Moon 

On This Day in Wx History

1934 – A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. 

Yesterday’s National Temperature Extremes

High:  104° at Rio Grande Village, Texas

Low:   10° at Vernal, Utah 

Today’s Tennessee Weather 

It’s another day of sun and clouds for our beautiful state. The best chance for sun will be found in areas closest to the Kentucky border. Some of those clouds may drop a few showers across the southern half of the state, as well as the easternmost parts of the state. Temperatures will once again be about ten degrees below average, hanging out in the low to mid 60s for much of the state.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Tonight’s Tennessee Weather 

It’s a chilly night for the Volunteer state, with lows in the 40s statewide. Skies should be generally clear for the western two-thirds of the state, with clouds and even a few showers hanging on in the east.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Tomorrow’s Tennessee Weather 

A warmer day is on tap for Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s for much of the state. A weak system may clip the northeast parts of the state, bringing a chance for a shower or thundershower.

Map created by WeatherWX.com

Wednesday’s Weather 101 w/ Meteorologist Mark

Supercells are storms that exhibit rotating updrafts and they contain very tall thunderclouds for those updrafts to exist within. As the winds aloft that steer the storm encounter these dense clouds, the clouds act as walls. The winds can go around them or down them. It’s the wind that comes down the back side of the storm that becomes a “rear flank downdraft.”

In the image below, the rear flank downdraft is at the rear of the storm. The circulation around the mesocyclone (the hook echo) draws in that air after it has reached the surface. This air is cool, since it descended from above, so it acts as a baby cold front, coming around the base of the supercell. The winds with this downdraft can be damaging. Also, in the image below you’ll see a blue blob on radar ahead of the “cold front” with the rear flank downdraft. That is likely dust being picked up by the strong winds.

This is a dramatic visual of that descending air. Notice that lighter sky color on the far left of the picture? That’s the downdraft coming down the back side of the storm. Air that descends dries out. Sometimes, the sun comes out in the clearing skies immediately behind the supercell. I’ve even seen pictures of the sun shining on the tornado.

In recent years, research has suggested that the rear flank downdraft has a lot to do with the development of a tornado. If that downdraft is especially cold, the baby cold front associated with it (aka gust front) will quickly pinch of the warm air blowing into the supercell and the tornado will be short-lived or not exist at all. If the downdraft is relatively warmer air, the baby cold front will be slower to move forward and the inflow into the tornado will continue, leading to a tornado developing or the tornado staying on the ground for a longer period of time.

Drought Monitor

The drought monitor is updated each Thursday.

Weather SnapShots (NEW!)

Some of you saw some rainbows on the plateau yesterday. Madelon Martin shared this photo from northwest Montana. How cool is that scene?

NASA Nerdology 

May 1964, pilot Jacqueline Cochran flew the Air Force Lockheed F-104G Starfighter to a speed over Mach 2 and set three new speed records, becoming the first woman to exceed twice the speed of sound. Can’t help but wonder how fast she drove a car? (Ha!). Seriously, this is quite the accomplishment and a very brave woman to do it!

Temperatures may be cool but the real-estate market is HOT! Ready to sell? Give me a call/text and we’ll make it happen! Call Meteorologist Mark at 931-248-1476 or email me at meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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