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Sunday Evening Severe Wx Update

Good evening, everyone! The sunset this evening was amazing! I sure hope you were able to catch a view. I took some good shots. In fact, WBIR in Knoxville reached out and asked permission to share my pics on their social media and possibly on their newscast this evening! One of the pics is seen below. Those high-thin Cirrus clouds often precede a storm system and create stunning sunsets.

As for severe weather for Monday….

The good news is that the threat continues to look “low.” We’ll take that! The main line is coming into western Arkansas right now, so it’s many, many hours away. The line will stay strong tonight but then start to weaken toward morning. That’s when temps cool and the air stabilizes a bit. That usually hinders storms. My level of concern for our area remains unchanged from this morning.

The line gets here just before it has a chance to start strengthening in the warmth of the afternoon again. Hopefully, the timing stays in our favor and this scenario plays out. That would mean that storms will be bad across West Tennessee late tonight, not so bad across Middle TN in the morning, but then be strengthening again over East TN tomorrow afternoon. We’re right on the line of the storms bein weak and not much of a threat, to getting stronger and being a threat over eastern sections of the state.

So, the best case scenario is that a line of showers and thunderstorms crosses the plateau at about mid-morning and just gives us some rain and gusty winds (about a 70% chance of this scenario). Worst case scenario is that the line slows down and gets here closer to noon. That would mean stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado (about a 30% chance of this scenario).

So, I’ll keep an eye on things tomorrow morning. The threat timeframe looks to be in the 8:00-11:00 time period.

You may have noticed the severe weather occurring right now over Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. There have been several severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings issued for those folks. But again, this line should be weakening when it arrives here.

Severe weather is not expected tonight.

I’ll keep an eye on things!

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