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Sunday Evening Storm Update

What: Gusty southerly winds

When: Overnight and Monday

What: Strong storm potential

When: Monday morning between 6:00 – 9:00

Good evening, everyone. First of all, make sure any loose outdoor objects are secured tonight. That includes any holiday decorations. Winds could gust to 30 mph by morning. These are southerly winds ahead of an advancing storm system.

A cold front will approach our area in the morning. That front will be accompanied by heavy downpours and some very gusty winds. Those winds could become locally damaging. The risk for an isolated, brief spin-up tornado is very low.

Behind that front, temps will drop. By the afternoon, we should be in the 40s. By Monday night, we’ll drop into the mid 20s.

At 5:30 this Sunday evening the Storm Prediction Center issued a discussion for West Tennessee, talking about how they are considering a watch for that area. There was a brief tornado warning issued near Jackson earlier for an isolated storm that popped up. That has since expired. The main threat for all of us is the squall line coming in the morning.

This is a model depiction of what the line of storms may look like at 7:00 am. Since models can be off an hour or so, we’re going to say the threat timeframe is 6:00-9:00 am. The line is coming through at the coolest and most stable time of the day (morning), so that will help us out.

The best upper-level support (reds and purples) is well to our north. Without that support, storms will have a harder time becoming severe. This also works in our favor.

The map on the left shows vorticity, or spin, in the air as the front comes through. As you can see, that spin is much greater back around Nashville. As it passes over our area, that really settles down. Spin comes from changing wind directions and speeds with height as the front comes through. This also works in our favor.

The Storm Prediction Center tornado threat area for the morning. As you can see, the threat is mainly southwest of us.

Finally, models are currently keeping the snow to our north Tuesday night. If anything changes, I’ll let ya know! A system to our south could send a little more moisture into our area. If that should happen, we could see some snowflakes. I’m not expected much, if any, impact.

Yet another powerful storm system for next weekend is causing a lot of chatter tonight among weather groups. A lot will change with the models between now and then but it’s something to keep in mind. Unfortunately, that’s looking like another severe weather threat. I’ll keep an eye on that. It’s far too early to worry about that just yet. Just keep this in mind when making plans next weekend.

You all take care and have a good night! We are not expecting any severe weather tonight.

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