The unseasonably warm weather we’ve been experiencing may lead to some strong storms on both Wednesday and Saturday. While Wednesday appears to be a lower threat, we will need to be weather-aware both days.
WHAT: Strong storms and heavy rainfall
WHEN: Wednesday (throughout the day)
MAIN THREATS: Gusty winds and heavy rain
I listened in on a NWS conference call earlier today and it basically reinforced my thoughts on the Wednesday event. While strong to severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, the threat appears low at this time. Forecasting severe storms this time of year is especially challenging, with so many things having to come together just right, so stay tuned. The potential for some heavier rain is certainly there, but that doesn’t look like it will get too out of hand. Believe it or not, we’re about two inches below normal on rainfall, so the ground and groundwater could use a drink.
The current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook has our area in the marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday. That’s low, but not zero. Keep in mind we’ve had severe weather events in the past few years with low to no threats highlighted by the SPC.
My concern for Wednesday is low but I’ll keep a close eye on things.
WHAT: Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall
WHEN: Saturday (exact timing unclear right now)
MAIN THREATS: Strong winds and heavy rain. Isolated tornadoes may be possible.
The next threat for severe storms may come Saturday. Both timing and intensity of those storms is up in the air right now. Just keep this threat in mind when making plans for Saturday. That is a more potent looking system in model data, so our storm threat is liable to be higher than it is Wednesday. Again, forecasting severe storms this time of year is challenging, so stay tuned.
I should also add that discerning between a heavy rain event and a severe weather event in the model data is very challenging any time of the year. It seems to be especially more challenging this time of year. The ingredients for both are similar but a bit of a rearrangement of those ingredients can make a big difference. It’s like making a cake versus a cupcake. The ingredients are the same but the arrangement of those ingredients sure makes a difference in what you get! Great, now I want a cupcake. 🙂
Enough data suggest troubles that my concern is already a bit elevated for Saturday.
There are indications that rain could change to snow Saturday night, but it is far too early to speculate on impacts. At this time, those impacts look very low, if any.
I have a tab for severe weather preparedness on this page, or you can simply click on the link below.
If you are having issues programming a weather radio I can help. I’ll post a video tomorrow on how to set one up for our area. Stay tuned for that. I will create a “weather radio” tab on this page, as well, that will always be available. There are many weather radios on the market and it would be impossible for me to show how to set up each one. However, the Midland is the most popular and hailed as the best by many of us in the weather community, so I’ll only be showing how to set those up.
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You all take care and have a good evening. I’ll have a full blog update out in the morning!