An unseasonably warm airmass will combine with a powerful storm system to bring the threat of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms to the Cumberland Plateau both tonight and Saturday. First, a dynamic warm front will lift north Friday night. This will destabilize the atmosphere and bring strong winds aloft. Any storm that develops tonight will be capable of producing a damaging wind gust, hail, and very heavy rainfall. In addition, an isolated tornado spin-up is possible.
We should see a break from the threats Saturday morning before a renewed and much more significant threat arrives during the afternoon and evening.
All modes of severe weather are possible with Saturday’s event, including the risk for a strong tornado. We will need to be weather-aware Saturday afternoon and evening. The most widespread threat will come with a line of strong to severe storms Saturday evening. However, isolated storms could develop ahead of the line. Those will pose a very serious risk of tornadoes, should those storms be able to form.
My concern for tonight remains low, though I have considered raising that concern. The threat tonight appears to be greatest for those of you in Fentress county, though that’s too close for comfort for Cumberland county not to be concerned. If additional data this evening continues to indicate a higher risk for severe storms tonight , this level of concern will increase in my evening update.
And my concern for tomorrow remains high. If additional data tonight continues to trend for stronger storms, I will consider taking this to “very high”.
I have recorded a YouTube video that you might find helpful. You all stay tuned. I’ll have another update out this evening around 7:00 p.m. Follow this blog to have updates sent to your inbox. Other ways to stay informed can be found at the bottom of this post. Thank you!
Severe Weather Safety