The latest round of model runs and guidance are trending wetter with our weekend system. I’ll keep a close eye on things but concerns are decreasing for a significant winter storm on the plateau. That’s NOT to say things can’t change, but the general trend is shifting significant snow chances to our north and northwest. Areas of western Kentucky, for instance, could be hard hit with accumulating snow.
I will add that if anyone has travel plans that take them toward the Virginias or Carolinas, be aware that models have been trending toward an ice storm there that could be rather impactful, if not devastating.
For us, it’s looking more like the winter events we’ve seen the past few years. The precip may start as a light wintry mix Friday night into Saturday morning, transition to rain that could be heavy at times on Saturday, and then end as some light snow that may accumulate to an inch or two. That’s the situation I feel like we’re looking at right now and that is certainly the trend in all the guidance today.
Stay tuned. This system has a lot of moisture and there’s plenty of cold air to our north. If those two can meet up more, we’d see more wintry precip. Keep in mind the Gulf is experiencing record warmth. Any southerly wind at all can pull up a lot of warm air in short time, which could hinder wintry precip for us in the coming weeks.
I’ll end with saying our Thursday afternoon to overnight system continues to trend higher with precip. If more of that can meet up with colder air, we may be looking at light wintry precip Thursday night that might impact Friday morning travel. This is what we call a “Northwest flow” event, where northwest winds hit the plateau at right angles, which enhances vertical lift and encourages clouds/light precip. Right now, I would think that would be a “one inch or less” of snow situation (at most). I’ll keep you posted on that, too. Just be aware of this if you must travel late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
As always, I’m watching things closely!