A complex of showers and thunderstorms is making its ways across the region at this hour. This activity is not severe and will only bring a few rumbles of thunder and rain to the plateau. As expected, a much more serious complex of storms has developed near the coastline this morning and is moving east. Pictured below is a radar image at 10:52 a.m.
Our local activity should be pushing out of the area by early afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will be organizing across West TN. In the gap between this morning’s complex of rain and the evening cold front coming through, there may be enough time for the atmosphere to recharge before that cold front moves in. That is our severe weather threat.
The chances for robust thunderstorm development are low but not zero. IF a storm can become severe this evening it will have the potential to become a large hail producer and could even spawn a tornado. Watch the radar this afternoon and evening for any storms that may try to develop across Middle TN and/or on the plateau.
The threat timeframe continues to look like the 3:00 – 9:00 timeframe.
The following radar simulation begins at 11:00 am and ends around midnight tonight. Notice that the first batch of rain is more widespread, followed by the chance for more scattered/isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
I’m keeping a close eye on things!