The forecast is still on track from the morning update. Winds will continue to increase from the south as we go through the day, gusting to near or slightly over 50 mph by sunset and into the evening. Keep in mind that this will likely cause some power outages across the plateau, as well as lead to falling trees and branches.
The radar-simulated image below is for midnight. As you can see, models want to keep this line quite intense as it approaches and moves across the plateau. The threat timeframe remains 9:00-midnight, with storms likely coming closer to that midnight hour.
All guidance continues to indicate that strong to severe storms will threaten the plateau tonight. Damaging straight-line winds continue to look to be the greatest threat. The threat for hail is very low. The threat for tornadoes is low but not zero.
The good news is that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is not increasing severe probabilities for anyone today. Probabilities are still high, especially across West TN and Mississippi, but the SPC is not increasing those probabilities today. In addition, as this line moves east it will tend to weaken. It will be strongest across West TN and then grow weaker as it moves toward the plateau.
Don’t forget that there is a tab for severe weather safety on the blog, or you can just glance at the morning blog.
I’ll keep an eye on things and will update later this evening. You all take care!