Good evening! First of all, tonight is looking alright. Earlier, it had looked like storms would move in right after midnight. That no longer looks to be the case. For many of us, that means a well-deserved night of sleep after the restless night we had last night because of storms.
Wednesday is looking warm and windy. We will likely have some morning showers and thundershowers around the 5:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m timeframe, but then those should clear out and lead to a decent afternoon (much like today). The partly sunny skies of the afternoon will warm us up to the mid to upper 70s. Those of you down around Pikeville and Spring City could touch 80 degrees.
And then a cold front comes our way.
Let me begin by saying that folks across West Tennessee are likely in for a very rough severe weather outbreak. As those storms push eastward, however, they will encounter a less favorable atmosphere for severe weather. That’s not to say our threat is zero, that is certainly not the case, but don’t be alarmed by news of big storms across West Tennessee. Make sure you keep in mind that they will be much more unstable than we will be.
Consider the image below. I’ve talked about this before with this event but it’s worth mentioning again. The image below is from the GFS model and shows winds at 250 mb (around 30,000 feet up). The darker reds are faster winds. This image is Wednesday evening. Notice that big streak of bright reds across Illinois and Indiana. Those were over West Tennessee earlier in the evening but have since moved north as the evening progresses. The most severe storms need those fastest winds aloft in order to thrive. Notice the upper-level winds are substantially weaker over us. That will allow storm updrafts to weaken substantially as they move toward us. So, the atmosphere will be MUCH more accommodating for severe storms and potentially powerful tornadoes across West TN tomorrow but not here.
The simulation below begins at 9:00 pm tonight and ends at 8:00 in the morning. Notice that storms will likely stay to our west tonight. We will see showers and thundershowers around in the morning hours, though.
Make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings Wednesday night. While we are not expecting the level of severe weather that will be seen to our west, storms could still pack a punch as they move across the plateau. Better safe than sorry, for sure. Damaging straight-line winds from collapsing (weakening) storms may be our greatest threat, though that is certainly not a threat to take too lightly.
I should note that I will be in Nashville tomorrow as part of my Leadership Cumberland class that I’m in for the next several months. I will do my best to keep you updated, though I’m not sure there will be much to report. Storms are not expected here until after 9:00 pm Wednesday and I’ll be back by 6:00 pm.
Should something come up that you need to know about I’ll step away from the class to update you.
One last word…if you know someone in West Tennessee, or even across the western half of Middle TN, please make sure they know of the severe weather threat tomorrow.
You all take care and let’s hope for another lucky break tomorrow night! I’ll be here with ya through it all!