First of all, I want to apologize for this morning’s forecast not being sent out. I’m not sure if that was user error (ha) or website error. Thankfully, the YouTube forecast did post. That’s one reason why I like having my forecast available on more than one site.
The rest of the night should be alright. We do have some more storm chances but overnight storms are expected to stay below severe limits. Incidentally, the largest hail report so far was from the Bondecraft area near the White/Cumberland County border. That was from the storm that moved into Pleasant Hill.
The radar simulation below shows a pretty decent idea of what is expected for tomorrow. We should see morning storms, followed by showers the rest of the day. Any severe potential , as it looks right now, should end by 2:00 pm, if not sooner. I’ll let you know when that threat is over.
I should note that there are indications that Friday’s storms could pack a punch. The Storm Prediction Center has stated that they may elevate our severe potential from the “slight risk” to the “enhanced risk.” That would mean going from level two to level three of the five severe weather risk categories. They do mention the concern for tornadoes.
My thoughts are this…..It is possible that tonight’s rain will help stabilize our environment ahead of tomorrow morning’s storms. IF we get some clearing in the morning, that will certainly help make our atmosphere more unstable, so we’ll hope for cloudier conditions. I’ve been looking at some satellite data and I’m a bit concerned that we will see some sun in the morning. Let’s hope not.
Morning storms are a bit more unpredictable, in that the morning is the most stable part of the day. We can certainly have bad storms during morning hours but it’s less common.
Our hope is also that the cold front doesn’t slow down and get here in the afternoon. That would put it coming through at a more unstable part of the day (warmer).
My concern remains on the lower end of the spectrum but I want us to all be weather-aware on Friday. I don’t like our position relative to the center of low pressure, which favors severe weather. Then, there’s the climatology of this time of year, which naturally leads us to expect severe storms this time of year.
I’ll keep an eye on the data that comes in tonight and I’ll do a full update in the morning. For now, just review your severe weather safety plan and be ready to put it to use on Friday. Make your plans around tomorrow’s storm threat, just in case.
We’ll hope for good news from me in the morning!
You all take care and have a good night!