As expected, many of us are seeing a break in activity this afternoon. That is allowing the atmosphere to heat up and recharge for more rain and storms this evening. As we’ve seen over the past 24 hours, any storm could be strong, with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
We remain in the marginal risk for severe weather, as issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Wind profiles are not favorable for tornadoes, but they are favorable for a possible damaging wind gust. Be aware of that. If any storm becomes severe it will likely be briefly severe for a damaging wind gust.
Notice the greater threat for severe can be found across West TN and then farther west across the plains.
The following HRRR radar model is from the time period of 3:00 pm to 8:00 pm. As you can see, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase once again. Also, be aware that there is a flash flooding risk, especially for areas that have already seen substantial rainfall accumulation. Be careful on area roadways during downpours.