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MM’s Sun Wx Forecast for July 17

For the potential of strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening.

Wx Summary

An approaching frontal system will begin kicking off scattered showers and storms across the region by this Sunday afternoon and evening. A few of those storms could be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. Showers and storms become numerous on Monday, as that front moves into the area. Some of that rainfall could be heavy in the stronger storms. Rain chances drop by Tuesday, but we hold onto at least some rain chances through the week, with a possible uptick to 30% Wednesday night.

This Week’s Hazards

MM’s Wx Vlog

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms. Rain chances remain overnight. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Monday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a chance for showers and storms. Southwest wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with isolated mainly afternoon/evening storms. Southwest winds 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph overnight.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with isolated mainly afternoon/evening storms. Southwest winds 5-10 mph.

MM’s Severe Wx Concerns 

The Storm Prediction Center has outline our area in the marginal risk for severe weeather, which is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories. The risk is low but not zero.

The main threat is damaging straight-line winds with any storm that becomes strong.

 SPC T-storm Outlook for Today

The panels below show the different threats the Storm Prediction Center expects today.

Severe Weather Safety Tips

HRRR Radar Model

This radar simulation runs from noon to midnight in one-hour increments. While this model shows the bulk of the activity arriving overnight, there will likley be scattered storms throughout the afternoon and evening.

Drought Outlook

Drought info can be found at my link at https://meteorologistmark.com/drought-info/. That link also allows you to compare this week’s map with last week’s. The maps update each Thursday.

Drought conditions have improved here on the plateau and across much of Middle and East TN. West TN’s drought continues to worsen.

On This Day

1934 – One of the worst heat waves in the history of the nation commenced. During the last two weeks of the month extreme heat claimed 679 lives in Michigan, including 300 in Detroit alone. 

2014 – Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 is shot down over Eastern Ukraine by a Buk surface-to-air missile launched from pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory, killing all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board.

Almanac

Hurricane Forecast

There’s no activity to report today, but an active season is still in the forecast!

The map below shows where we most often expect development to occur this time of year.

MM News

Starting on today, the blog will publish at or by 9:00 a.m. each morning. This will work better with my work schedule and allow me more time to analyze the weather before issuing a forecast. I will, of course, always publish updates when severe weather is threatening our area.

Starting in August, the MM newsletter will be published monthly, rather than weekly. The new format will be more in depth and focus heavily on the kids classes I teach and the weather of the plateau and Tennessee. There will be a new section that discusses the main weather headlines of the previous month. The new newsletter format is sure to be a hit!

Remember, subscriptions from those newsletters pay for for materials for the kids’ classes (Thank you!). Those subs are only $5 monthly or discounted to $50 per year (https://meteorologistmarkpro.com/). Donations are also gladly accepted at PayPal ( paypal.me/meteorologistmark) or P.O. Box 51, Clarkrange, TN, 38553.

MM Classes for Kids

If you would like to be added to the email list to be notified of when registration for classes opens, just send me an email to meteorologistmark@gmail.com.

Registration for the Clarkrange class in August is now open! That class is August 4 at 5:00. Please allow extra travel time due to the Highway 127 yard sales that day. Registration is available at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeA9oc7Akb8UBKD3m3uG4kPdJh21dDhVm8REDO425ucJYnL-A/viewform

The next MM kids class at TCAT in Crossville will be Wednesday, August 17 at 4:30. Register today at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc6-ePugEZIhbSRl4x4zPYqcBWASNywEqW3Ar_17J0NgxXuIA/viewform

That class topic is telescopes, with emphasis on the new NASA James Webb telescope!

You all have a great day and keep lookin’ up!

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