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Monday Afternoon Weather Update

Our forecast is looking good for the rest of our afternoon. The large area of rain and storms that was mainly to our south has skirted on off to the east, leaving us with a very warm and humid evening.

Now, our attention turns to storms to the north. Just moments ago, the Storm Prediction Center outlined an area across Kentucky and Indiana that they are monitoring (see weatherTAP image below). They anticipate issuing a severe t-storm watch for that area over the next couple of hours. Those storms will then charge southward toward our neck of the woods. They would arrive sometime around midnight. I’ll be able to get more specific with timing once the line fully develops.

Models had backed off of the line coming through here and were starting to trend it eastward. However, the reality is much differerent. As you can see on the radar image above, the line appears to be trying to develop rather far to the west and even extends across parts of Illinois.

I’ve made two graphics. The first is for Fentress County. The damaging wind threat from these storms is higher there. By the time they reach Cumberland County, it is hoped the storms will have weakened, though that is no guarantee.

The main threat with these storms would likely be damaging straight-line winds. High winds and saturated soils are a bad combination, so we’ll hope the storms don’t get too windy.

The advisories you see outlined across eastern Kentucky on the radar image above are for potential flooding coming to them tonight. Let’s keep those folks close to our hearts because that’s the last thing they need. Thirty-five are now confirmed dead from last week’s flooding there, but hundreds are still missing. A great many of them will likely turn up, but that just gives you an idea of how bad communication is there right now, due to the severely damaged infrastructure.

I’ll keep an eye on these storms as we go into the evening. I teach a GED class this evening until 7:00 and I’ll post an update sometime after that is done.

You all take care.

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