Radar at this hour shows plenty of showers and storms just to our south, especailly across areas of southern Middle TN that were really needing rain. That rain is sliding eastward and may clip southern Cumberland County in the coming hours.
As for the rest of the region, the rest of the afternoon will feature a chance for a shower or storm. That rain chance will drop to 30% after the noon hour.
Attention then turns to tonight. A complex of storms that I was watching earlier in northern Kentucky has all but completely dissipated. However, models are suggesting new devlopment as the evening hours wear on. If a new complex of strong storms develops, they could threaten portions of the plateau later tonight. That threat would be higher for those of you closer to the Kentucky border. However, any of us may be susceptible to these storms if they develop and organize in such a fashion that they can make it down here.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight our entire area in the marginal risk for severe storms tonight. That is the lowest of the five severe-weather risk categories and could increase if storms develop more robustly than currently anticipated.
The HRRR, a short-term radar model, shows this complex of storms that may develop later tonight. This model begins at midnight and ends at noon Tuesday. Again, this is just a model but it has been performing well lately and I see no reason why this isn’t a reasonable forecast.
I should note that the Weather Prediction Center maintains a slight risk for flash flooding for our area tonight, as well. This threat would accompany any storm that moves into our area.
I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know how all this all evolves as we go into the evening. I’ll post another update later today to keep you updated. Look for that update by 8:00 pm.
You all take care.