Weather forecast issued Monday, November 20, 2023
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
Radar (New!)
Radar brought to you by Creative Compassion (ccihomes.org).
Most of what you see on radar this morning is not reaching the ground. Much of that is evaporating in the drier air near the surface (called virga). The best rain chances come overnight.
Short-Term Radar Model
This radar model begins at 7:00 this morning and ends at 11:00 tonight, moving in one-hour increments. While not perfect, this model does seem to have a good handle on what we can expect for today, with much of our rain holding off until later this evening.
MM’s Local Weather Concerns
>ELEVATED FIRED DANGER TODAY –Outdoor burning of any kind is STRONGLY DISCOURAGED, especially with strong winds in the area. Strong winds can cause even a small fire to get out of control in only seconds.
>STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (40+ mph) –Secure any outdoor holiday decorations. Sporadic power outages are possible.
MM’s 5-Day Forecast
Mon-Tue Forecast Rainfall Totals
Rainfall amounts have trended up a bit since yesterday’s data. I think this 1-1.25″ forecast is the one to rely on.
Yesterday’s Weather Statistics
On This Day
1900- An F-4 tornado cuts a devastating swath 300 yards wide and eight miles long along the northwest edge of Columbia. Hardin, Wayne, and Lewis Counties may have had related tornado activity before the storm reached Columbia. Most deaths are in the Macedonia community, two miles west of Columbia, where the homes and cabins are “turned into kindling wood.” The funnel was moving northeastward, heading for the center of Columbia, but turns suddenly to the north. Damage is estimated at $40,000. The tornado kills 27, and injures 75. It is the fourth deadliest tornado to ever strike Middle Tennessee. An F-3 tornado kills nine and injures 40 along a 25-mile path across Williamson, Davidson, and Rutherford Counties.
Drought Monitor
The Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday. The map below was updated on Thursday, November 16. Drought conditions continue to worsen.
Current Snowfall Depth
48-Hour Jetstream Forecast
Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels (~30,000 feet) of the atmosphere. Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Brighter reds/purples indicate faster winds. The map begins this morning and moves in six-hour increments to Wednesday morning.
YouTube
My YouTube channel can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCz3zLMT7tqpb6eIaE-8YGog You can subscribe to that channel for free. Regular updates are posted there on Sunday and Wednesday nights. Additional posts will be made during times of active weather.
