This is Wednesday evening, July 15, 2026
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This picture was sent to my by Kory Kurtz. He tood this pic while in Grassy Cove. This is the visual definition of “scattered showers and storms.” When we forecast “scattered showers” this is exactly what we mean. Some showers stay several minutes and drop heavy rain (maybe even flash flooding), while others just move along and just bring a quick shower. Oftentimes, even the storms are gone within half an hour, allowing the sun to return and outdoor activities to resume.
Keep in mind that your chance for rain does not indicate how much rain you will get. A 70% chance for showers just means you have a 70% chance of having rain fall on your yard. It is no indication of how much rain will fall. That’s a separate forecast.
This is a beautiful picture, for sure, but we are always mindful of any lightning that may occur. We say that if thunder roars, go indoors but keep in mind that first strike comes without thunder. A lot of research suggests the lightning fatalities that we have nowadays are folks who experienced the first strike.
5-Day Forecast
MM says…Scattered shrs and storms return, especially for Friday and Saturday. Confidence is lower for Sunday, when guidance varies between trending wetter and drier. I contemplated going with a 70% chance but leaned on the drier guidance and went with 50%. On Monday, some guidance shows more scattered showers and storms, while other guidance has dry weather on us. Therefore, confidence is low on Monday’s sunny forecast.
MM’s Weather Worries
The greatest threat from stronger storms will be flash flooding. There continue to be no strong signals for widespread severe storms in this forecast period.
MM’s Wx Analysis
Our weather map for Thursday will be rather typical for what we’ll see through the weekend, with unsettled weather over much of the eastern U.S, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
While the jetstream pattern is certainly not much news to us through the weekend (it’s way too far north), I did notice that in the extended outlook for early next week….say from Tuesday onward…there appears to be an evolving pattern of a northwest flow aloft for our area. I’ll have to watch this closely because sometimes this pattern steers big thunderstorm complexes from the upper Midwest into our neck of the woods. I’ll keep you posted.
Additional Analysis
While conditions are very unfavorable for tropical development over much of the Atlantic, there is a bit of a disturbance to watch coming off the coast of Africa in the coming days. Closer to home, there’s a disturbance to watch that is moving through the northeast Gulf and will be moving toward the Southeast Coast. That disturbance will likely not develop into much of anything, but it could help steer more tropical moisture into our neck of the woods.
El Nino years typicall make conditions unfavorable for tropical storms in the Atlantic. More often than not, during El Nino years we’re more likely to see development in the Gulf or close to the coast, much like what we’re seeing now.
A new episode was released today!
Farmer’s Almanac Gardening
MM’s Aches-n-Pains Forecast
MM’s Pollen Forecast
Grasses will be the top allergen this week.
Radar-Estimated Precip from the Past Week
Lots of folks have seen lots of rain over the past week, while others haven’t seen as much. Such is the nature of summer’s scattered showers and storms.
Drought Conditions
This will update in the morning!
This graphic is released to the public every Thursday.
The Night Sky
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