This is Wednesday evening, July 29, 2026
We have two beautiful days ahead of us! Sunny skies, comfortable temps, and low humidity levels will make for some nice summer days and nights. By the weekend, the pattern becomes very unsettled, which means increasing rain chances.
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5-Day Forecast
MM says…We have two stellar days ahead, followed by another streak of much wetter weather. Wet days will likely extend past Monday.
Confidence is high Thurs and Fri. The only thing keeping my confidence a bit lower for Sat – Mon is the question of rain timing and coverage. If I were just talking about rain, I’d say my confidence is high for that.
MM’s Weather Worries
Stay tuned for updates to this. The risk for severe storms may rise for Saturday. Flooding concerns will be with us through the weekend and into Monday. Saturday will also likely be a very windy day.
MM’s Wx Analysis
The weather map for Saturday shows an unseasonably strong area of low pressure in Illinois. That should do a fantastic job kicking off shr and storms over a large portion of the eastern US, including here on the plateau. This is also a pattern that would favor southerly wind gusts to at least 25 mph for us on the plateau.
Sunday’s map doesn’t look much better, though with this set-up the severe weather threat is likely to be lower on Sunday than it might be on Saturday. Rain chances would continue to be very elevated.
The jet stream will once again be unseasonably active this weekend. This is Saturday’s map. Notice that green shading over TN. That’s winds that are even higher than the rest of the flow within the jet (a jetstreak). If that verifies, that could lead to even heavier rainfall and an increased risk for severe storms.
This modeled weather balloon launch data that I modeled for the plateau shows wind shear and instability sufficient for heavy rainfall and severe storms on Saturday. I’ll keep an eye on this data and see if it trends better or worse for us. a similar model for Sunday shows more of a heavy rainfall threat than severe weather threat.
As we’ve seen many, many times this summer, this forecast for scattered showers and storms this weekend doesn’t mean it will rain everywhere all the time. It’s scattered showers and storms.
MM News
The storm reports from yesterday’s storms continue to come in. The storms around East TN have yet to confirm tornadoes, even though one was confirmed by debris on radar. The storm was over such a remote mountainous area that the NWS may have to use satellite to do the damage survey.
I’ve updated the Farmer’s almanac for planting calendar. It now includes August.
I have a new episode out today about Lookout Mountain, TN!
This is the new MM Concern Meter to use during times of severe weather (including winter weather!). In the example below, I had been more concerned than I am at the current update. I hope this helps those of you with storm anxieties. You all are always asking if I’m feeling better or worse about the storms. Well, now there’ll be a meter! ha
You folks have a wonderful end to your week! I’ll keep you posted on that weekend forecast and I’ll see you all back here for the morning forecast!
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