Meteorologist Mark

Special update issued August 12 at 7:40 pm

I have even better news! Since the last update at 6:20, radar trends have been even more in our favor. All that’s left of our squall line is a band of light to moderate rainfall, with some embedded heavier downpours. We have the heat and we have the humidity, but the atmosphere above just isn’t in the mood this evening. lol

As the morning turned into afternoon, everything seemed to be building for severe storms this evening. Then, as the afternoon wore on the cap held strong, upper-level winds weakened, and our developing squall line seemed to be in a sluggish mood. All of these things conspired to get us off the hook with severe storms.

Now, as we go through the night, there is still a 50% chance for showers and storms. I still can’t rule out a strong storm during the night. However, that risk is low.

The clouds with this system are liable to really hinder the viewing of the Perseids meteor shower (that’s why I haven’t said much about them). But, like I said earlier, meteor showers don’t just shut off. We’ll be able to see them through at least the 24th of August.

After dark, we should see some distant lightning again. I’ll be looking northeast and east. As long as you can’t hear thunder, you’re at a safe enough distance to watch lightning.

As always, I’ll keep a close eye on things and let you know if there’s anything you need to know about.

I’m feeling even better!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Special update issued August 12 at 6:20 pm

Radar trends are looking better for us for this evening’s severe threat. Storms have struggled here in TN, even as they try to develop ahead of the main line. A few storms managed to develop ahead of the line in Kentucky and appear to have caused the line to weaken.

As we go through the rest of the evening, we’ll continue to monitor the radar. The Storm Prediction Center does not intend to issue a watch for our area, which is another good sign.

The difference with this evening’s storms is that storms in Missouri appear to be taking some of the energy from the line trying to come in from Kentucky. That’s also a good thing! Plus, we have a cap in place (warm layer aloft) and that’s hindering storms too.

Again, we still can’t rule out some strong storms this evening, but I’m feeling better now than I was a few hours ago.

I also meant to mention that the Perseid meteor shower peaks tonight. Don’t worry if skies don’t cooperate. Meteor showers go on for weeks. There’s been plenty of times when I’ve seen more on nights that weren’t the peak.

I’ll keep an eye on things!

I’m feeling better!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Special update issued August 12 at 3:40 pm

Heat and humidity continue to buid, which means instability continues to build. We may be looking at a repeat of yesterday that will feel eerily familiar. Yet another complex of storms is building in southern Indiana and is charging our direction. By the time it arrives here, it will carry the threats of torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and the possibility for damaging wind gusts.

If we can get storms to fire off ahead of the line, that will help diminish the threats of the line.

No matter what, we are ripe for storms this afternoon and evening and any storm could easily become severe. If you have outdoor plans this evening, please pay close attention to the weather and keep in mind that things can change very fast! If you have an outdoor event, designate someone to watch the radar and be able to communicate any warnings that may be issued. Also keep in mind that August storms are notorious for frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. If you can hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck.

I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if there’s anything you need to know about. I wouldn’t be surpised if we get a severe t-storm watch issued later on.

My concern is increasing with every hour we go without widespread storms. The instability just keeps building.

The graphics below are unchanged since this morning’s forecast.

I just made a couple of tweeks to this graphic, increasing rain chances at 10:00 pm and changing the greatest threat for severe storms from 5:00 – 10:00 to 6:00 – 11:00.

Threats remain the same.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Special update issued August 12 at noon

Our atmosphere is heating up and destabilizing. This is increasing the risk for storms to become severe. We’ll be weather aware through the afternoon and evening. Like yesterday, localized damaging wind gusts will be possible with any storm. Those gusts are often so brief and localized that a warning never goes out. With soils being so wet and trees being lush with foliage, it doesn’t take as much wind to push one over.

Computer models aren’t doing a good job with today’s forecast, but thankfully not all of us need those models to make a forecast. ha Conditions are ripe for storms today and we’ll be watching those radars for any that develop. In addition, it still looks as though a complex of storms will threaten us again from the north, similar to last night.

Winds aloft are quite brisk and that can help get storms going, as well. If you ever look up on a hot summer day and you notice the clouds are moving nicely across the sky, you should know that storm chances are higher. Those faster winds up there cause our pressure to lower down here (air rises up to replace the air being carried away aloft).

I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if there’s anything you need to know about.

For this update, I’ll start the concern meter! We’ll see how my concern changes with today’s threat as we go through the day.

The graphics below are unchanged since this morning’s forecast.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.