Issued June 22, 2026

Today is a Meteorologist Mark Weather Alert Day for the risk for severe storms and flash flooding.

Local matters, especially when it comes to your weather forecast! Bringing you your local weather since 2017!

MM’s Forecast Update for the Plateau

The forecast is on track! The special update I did at 11:35 is working out nicely. The severe threat does indeed appear to be staying south of our general area, with more of a heavy rain threat developing for us this afternoon. If anything, our risk for localized flash flooding has increased. I’ve updated the severe weather threat graphic, seen below.

I can’t completely rule out a severe t-storm, but those chances are quite low. A severe t-storm watch has been issued for southern Middle TN, which was to be expected. No watches are planned for our area and I don’t expect any to be issued due to the low risk, isolated nature, of any severe storm that we might get here on the plateau.

Pictured below is the same graphics I used in the last update, but with an updated radar image (radar image at 2:16). Notice the heavy rain to our west that is moving our way.

This remains unchanged. Rain continues to move in and will be overspreading the plateau over the next hour.

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Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Issued June 22, 2026

Today is a Meteorologist Mark Weather Alert Day for the risk for severe storms and flash flooding.

Local matters, especially when it comes to your weather forecast! Bringing you your local weather since 2017!

MM’s Forecast Update for the Plateau

Very high rain chances and gusty southerly winds remain in the forecast today, along with the risk for heavy downpours and a low-end risk for severe storms.

A boundary appears to have set up that stretches across southern Middle TN and up to the plateau this morning. South of this boundary zone is where the greatest risk for severe storms will likely set up today. I’ve marked that boundary zone with yellow lines on the radar imagery below. Within the corridor that I’ve outlined, showers and storms continue to move southwest to northeast. This would keep the greatest risk to our south. If that boundary zone lifts northward, more of the plateau would be at risk. It is encouraging that more showers and storms are moving our way along this boundary at this hour. That activity should help keep us more stable. Even if the precip doesn’t make it here with this activity in southern Middle TN right now, the clouds will and those will keep temps cooler than they would otherwise be, which would also help keep us more stable.

Right now, I’m thinking areas south of White, Cumberland and Roane counties would be at the greatest risk for a severe storm today. This may end up being more of a heavy rain event for many of us on the plateau. We certainly have favorable conditions for that!

A special weather briefing by the NWS Nashville is scheduled for 1:00 pm. If I learn anything you need to know about at that, I’ll pass it along in an afternoon update. Keep in mind that while we have a low risk for severe storms, that risk is not zero.

Within the last half hour, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area that they are considering issuing a severe weather watch for this afternoon. Whether that’s a tornado or severe t-storm watch remains to be seen. The good news is that, at least for now, they’re keeping that area to our south. Those folks are warmer and have less rain activity than we do this morning. If they issue any special discussions for our area, I’ll pass that info along to you!

The timing remains unchanged from this morning. Hopefully, we at least all get some good rainfall from this system.

The threats remain unchanged from the morning update. All threats are low but not zero.

MM says, THANK YOU, Sponsors!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

I’ll have special updates throughout the day to keep you informed!

Today is Monday, June 22, 2026

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MM’s Hourly Forecast

5-Day Forecast

MM says: Today is a MM Weather Alert Day. Let’s be weather aware and stay safe in any storm that may become severe. Better weather is coming Tuesday and Wednesday!

6-10 Day Temp & Precip Outlook

MM says…Well above normal temps are beginning to show up in the extended outlooks. Those outlooks also favor normal precip. Normal highs and lows this time of year are 81°/62°.

MM’s Weather Worries

MM’s Wx Analysis

A very active frontal boundary (unusually active for June standards) will continue to press southward today. As it does so, it will encourage showers and t-storms to develop. Some storms could be severe and some of the rainfall could be very heavy. This system will slowly push on through the area tonight, giving us nicer weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The vorticity (spin of the air) that I talked about last night did increase with the latest data. However, it increased much more to our west than it did here. This is one reason why the tornado threat is higher to our west today.

And StormNet is picking up on that, as well. The tornado threat is greatest across southern Middle TN, decreasing as we move toward the plataeau. Still, a spin-up can’t be ruled out for anyone on the plateau this afternoon and evening.

On This Day

Farmer’s Almanac Gardening for June

MM’s Aches-n-Pains Forecast

MM’s Pollen Forecast

Yesterday’s Local Weather Stats

Radar-Estimated Precip from Yesterday

MM says….There were numerous severe storms in Illinios and Indiana on Sunday. You can see the paths of some of the strongest storms in southern Illinois and southern Indiana based on the rainfall they produced, as shown on the map below. You can even see where upper-level steering winds pushed storms in southern Indiana in slightly different directions (so much splitting of winds aloft, which helps severe storms). I’ve marked those storms with yellow arrows. The more northern storms went northeastward, the one south of it cut more eastward, and the ones farthest south went southeastward. You can literally see the split-flow, diverging flow aloft that steered the severe storms. That diverging flow aloft allows storms to grow and strengthen, creating healthy updrafts that can “breathe” and intensify. Pretty cool, right?

Be sure to follow this site and/or download the free Meteorologist Mark app from your app store to get updates about the weather of the Cumberland Plateau sent to your phone as soon as I send them out. Thank you all so much!

Drought Conditions

This graphic is released to the public every Thursday.

Be sure to follow this site and/or download the free Meteorologist Mark app from your app store to get updates about the weather of the Cumberland Plateau sent to your phone as soon as I send them out. Thank you all so much!

Thank You, Sponsors!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Issued June 21, 2026

Monday will be a Meteorologist Mark Weather Alert Day for the risk for severe storms.

Local matters, especially when it comes to your weather forecast! Bringing you your local weather since 2017!

MM’s Forecast Update for the Plateau

The radar has been very active today to our northwest. The energy for those storms has spared us any storms today. That activity is associated with a storm system that will push our way over the next 24 hours, bringing an increased risk for rain and storms. Some of the activity you see on this evening’s radar (seen below) will push our way overnight. It will weaken as it does so. This should give us some showers in the morning, but we should steer clear of any severe storm threats. I will continue to monitor that closely.

Breaking down the hourly forecast for tomorrow, I highlighted in orange the hours of greatest concern for any severe storms. As you can see, rain chances remain elevated all day. If morning showers and clouds hang around, instability will be more limited in the afternoon, which will reduce our severe storm threat.

I have increased our tornado threat once again. It’s still low, but not zero. Data suggests that there could be enough shear to give us a spin-up with a stronger storm. Damaging straight-line winds and localized flash flooding remain the greatest threat with any stronger storm.

MM’s Analysis…for those who want to know a bit more.

The weather map for Monday afternoon shows an area of low pressure centered over the Ohio Valley with a cold front extended southwestward from that low. As that front runs into our warm and humid air from the Gulf, showers and storms will develop. That front will slowly move across the area. The front eventually stalls out across the Deep South by Tuesday afternoon.

The above map shows you what’s at the surface, but the atmosphere high above us matters just as much as surface features. If we go alllll the way up to 30,000 feet into the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon, we see a disturbance in that flow aloft (circled). Anytime you see lines bend on pressure charts, we generally call that a “disturbance”. These disturbances encourage the air to rise, which encourages storms to form.

Something new with today’s data is the increase, however subtle, in vorticity for Monday. Vorticity is a measure of how air spins as it rises to form storms. In Tennessee, we see just enough vorticity for it to be a bit more concerning that the spinning air ingested by updrafts Monday afternoon could lead to enough spinning for a tornado. We’ll monitor this with tonight and tomorrow morning’s data to see if this increases or decreases.

StormNet is a product that has been improving for severe weather forecasting. It takes several factors into consideration to highlight areas that might have a tornado risk. Tomorrow’s threat for our region shows up quite subtly, but it has trended up in today’s guidance. We’ll see what this looks like in the morning, as well. The blue dot indicates where the plateau is.

As always, I’ll have a full update in the morning. You all take care, have a pleasant evening, and keep it right here with Meteorologist Mark for all the latest on the weather of the Cumberland Plateau!

MM says, THANK YOU, Sponsors!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.