Issued July 20, 2026

I’m continue to monitor the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening and night with the passage of an unseasonably strong cold front. In addition, a heat advisory remains in effect for Tuesday.

I’ll have a full forecast update out in the morning, of course. For now, just know that I’m still expecting a severe storm threat to develop Tuesday evening. The main threat timeframe continues to look like the 6:00 to midnight timeframe. All modes of severe weather are possible, but the damaging straight-line wind and flash flood threats currently look the most concerning to me. We may see some storms produce wind gusts to 70 mph.

Tuesday will be a very hot and humid day, with a risk for a pop-up storm. That chance remains 30%. Then, as we get into the evening, rain chances will increase to 90%. Drier air moves in on Wednesday, giving us drier conditions by afternoon. Less humid air arrives for Thursday and Friday!

One of the latest short-term model runs shows a line of storms dropping south out of Kentucky at 7:00 pm Tuesday. This is a model, so timing can be off an hour or two. Still, this paints a picture that many of us have been concerned about…a complex of severe storms moving south from Kentucky in the evening. All of our models will be updating with new information overnight and in the morning and I’ll share that with you all in the Tuesday morning forecast.

In other news…as of 7:00 pm we have Tropical Storm Bertha in the Gulf. That storm is 110 miles south of Panama City and moving west. It is expected to make landfall in southeast Lousiana Wednesday night as a tropical storm and then track westward toward Texas while hugging the coast (preventing any restrengthening).

I’ll continue to monitor data tonight and in the morning concerning Tuesday evening’s storms. I’ll give you all a fresh update in the morning! Don’t forget to look for the moon and Venus in the evening sky again this evening if you think of it. It’s been quite the sight lately! You all have a wonderful evening!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

Today is Monday, July 20, 2026

Bringing you your tailor-made local weather forecast since 2017!

MM’s Hourly Forecast

5-Day Forecast

MM says…The greatest risk for rough storms comes Tuesday evening and night. Rain chances will be low on Tuesday but those chances rise to 90% overnight. Less humid by the end of the week!

6-10 Day Temp & Precip Outlook

MM’s Weather Worries

MM’s Wx Analysis

A nearby frontal boundary will likely kick off a few more shrs and storms this afternoon. Be mindful of that if you’re out and about. Torrential rainfall is possible with any storm.

A tropical system in the Gulf is expected to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days off the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coasts. Instances of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms will develop and move along a cold front crossing the Upper Midwest, and through the Ohio & Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s weather map shows a very active day! A severe weather outbreak in the eastern U.S., a tropical storm in the Gulf, and dangerous flash flooding across the Southwest.

On This Day

New episodes each week!

Farmer’s Almanac Gardening

MM’s Aches-n-Pains Forecast

MM’s Pollen Forecast

Yesterday’s Local Weather Stats

The Crossville Airport is the official reporting station for the plateau.

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Radar-Estimated Precip from Yesterday

I zoomed in a bit to show how rainfall varied across the area on Sunday. I circled Cumberland County and pointed an arrow to it for reference. Some people had flooding and lots of rain, others stayed dry.

Drought Conditions

This graphic is released to the public every Thursday.

Space Stuff

Thank You, Sponsors!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

A look at the week ahead and what I’m keeping an eye on!

This is Sunday evening, July 19, 2026

Don’t forget today is National Icecream Day! Get yourself some icecream!

Bringing you your tailor-made local weather forecast since 2017!

5-Day Forecast

MM says…I’m watching Monday for storms that may produce flash flooding, Tuesday for severe storms, and the end of the week for lower humidity.

I’ll have a fresh update Monday morning to give you the latest on the severe storm threat that is possible on Tuesday.

You’ll notice the confidence bars under each day. The more darker blue you see, the more confident I am in that day’s forecast.

MM’s Weather Worries for the Week

While any of Monday’s storms could be strong and/or produce flash flooding, the greatest overall threat may come Tuesday evening. Timing is yet to be determined, so please stay tuned for updates. This has the potential to be an impactful severe weather event for the plateau.

We should see less coverage of storms on Monday, but any storm could be severe and/or produce flash flooding and frequent lightning.

For this update, I’ve increased all threats just a bit.

MM’s Wx Analysis

The weather maps for Monday show more scattered showers and storms for the eastern U.S. By Tuesday, the weather map, seen below, shows a volatile day of severe storms impacting the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. That cold front you see in the Midwest will pass through our area Wednesday, bringing lower humidity by Thursday.

An unseasonably strong jet stream could help steer powerful storm complexes toward TN by Tuesday.

Additional Analysis

A tropical depression formed today and that will likely evolve into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday. A newly updated track takes the storm westward, which gives it more time over water. This means it may end up becoming a high-end tropical storm before it makes landfall in Texas by Friday. This system will mainly bring gusty winds and bands of showers and storms to coastal areas this week.

A new episode of Weather & War this week will feature the Battle of Lookout Mountain Tennessee! Stay tuned!

Farmer’s Almanac Gardening

MM’s Aches-n-Pains Forecast

MM’s Pollen Forecast

Grasses will be the top allergen this week.

Storm Reports this Month

These are all the storm reports filed in TN so far this month.

And this is all the storm reports issued across the nation in July.

Past 3 Days Radar-Estimated Rainfall

I put a yellow rectangle over Cumberland and Fentress counties to give you perspective. We’ve seen a lot of rain in many places over the past few days, helping us chip away at the drought on the plateau.

Drought Conditions

This graphic is released to the public every Thursday.

We continue to chip away at the drought but severe drought conditions were still present as of last Thursday. Before today, the official deficit for Crossville was nearly 7 inches. Some of you are drier and some of you are wetter.

The Night Sky & Space Stuff

Thank You, Sponsors!

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings. 

A flash flood warning has now been issue for central Putnam County, including Cookeville and Algood, until 8:15 pm. A flahs flood warning remains for Cumberland County until 7:45 pm. The warned areas are shaded in green on the map below. Flood advisories (not as severe as a flash flood warning) are in effect for portions of Morgan and Bledsoe counties (areas shaded in blue).

More flash flood warnings are possible as we go through the evening. Plus, dangerous and very frequent cloud-to-ground lightning has been occurring with some of these storms (some houses have even been struck in the area).

You all be safe out there. Don’t drive across flooded roads, especially if you know the water is swiftly moving.

Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.

Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.