This is Sunday evening, August 2, 2026
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5-Day Forecast
MM says…Chances for showers and storms will be with us each day. As we get closer to each day, rain chances will likely vary from 50% – 70%.
Confidence in getting shrs and storms on the plateau is high, but the coverage and timing is a bit more uncertain. Most showers and storms this week will likely be driven by the heat of the day and will therefore be more numerous in those afternoon and early evening hours.
MM’s Weather Worries for the Week
MM’s Wx Analysis
This is a satellite image of our system on Saturday. That is a classic cyclone! It’s also unseasonable, meaning it’s something we don’t expect this time of the year.
That system led to showers and storms on the plateau Saturday afternoon and evening, with some of those storms being severe. I took this picture later in the afternoon. I drew a line to show the tilt of the updraft. Stronger winds aloft cause that updraft to tilt, helping the storm grow stronger.
This is a textbook diagram showing what I’m explaining. Rain falls ahead of the updraft when it’s tilted, allowing the storm to function better. If the updraft isn’t tilted, such as with typical summer storms, the falling rain interferes with the updraft, choking the storm.
Those faster winds aloft also cause the air to roll, such as seen below. Faster winds on top of slower winds cause the rolling motion.
If a thunderstorm can tilt that rolling motion upward by injesting it into the updraft, it may develop a rotating updraft that could produce a tornado.
Such as what we saw in the Vandever community of Cumerland County. Video is critical, as you can see the rotation. Still pictures are often very difficult to discern. I love a good video showing rotation. I have the video on my Facebook page if you’re interested in seeing that.
This was a very challenging situation, as there was never a watch issued, never a strong storm advisory, and never a severe t-storm or tornado warning. Still, I think we persevered through those challenges as well as we could. I also learned more lessons that I will carry with me for next time. Once again, we’ve had a weak, brief spin-up without a warning.
I am thankful that I was able to give you all a heads up about severe weather when I did the Wednesday night check. The threat timeframe worked out well, as well. It was a weather alert day and an usual one at that! This isn’t supposed to be the weather we get in August! If it had gotten sunnier, I have no doubt we would have had a tornado outbreak.
I want to thank Cyrstal Bruce for sending me the video. I also want to thank others of you who took the time to send me messages because you were worried about the way storms behaved in your neighborhood. One gentleman messaged me from Banner Springs saying he had a wind shift and a freight train sound. Later in the evening, someone else sent me video of a funnel cloud, possible tornado, from Deer Lodge. I appreciate these reports, as they are very helpful!
Exciting MM News This Week!
I’m still so excited about this and I will be for a long time to come! ha I’m also headed to Oklahoma this week with my National Science Foundation crew from TTU to visit Cherokee museums. The plan is to also meet with some folks from the Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma.
In Other News
The Night Sky & Space Stuff
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