Author: Meteorologist Mark

We have an atmosphere that is trying to destabilize, with the approach of a disturbance. However, our air here at the surface is cool, stable, and dry. That means we are getting some cool clouds out there but very little rainfall. Go out and look up.

You’ll notice a “ripple-effect” look to the clouds. That is alternating areas of rising and sinking air, much like what happens when you see ripples on a pond after throwing a rock in. This is the unstable air moving atop our stable surface layer, causing ripples.

Main Threats

Saturday night: First hard freeze of the season

Summary

It’s a beautiful start to our day but clouds and showers are quickly moving this way. Once our clouds move in, we may not see the sun again until Saturday. The best chance of rain comes Friday, when a very strong cold front moves in. While that front will clear our skies and bring us sunshine for Saturday, it sure won’t warm us up much! If you have outdoor plans this weekend (ie. Veteran’s Day parades) you better bundle up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t make it to 40 degrees for a high on Saturday. Even if we do, most of the day will be spent in the 30s.

We warm up some on Sunday ahead of another big storm system. Showers may start moving in as early as Sunday night, but the bulk of the rain should hold off until Monday. That system will bring an arctic front, our first of the season, and you’re going to think it’s winter time around here after that front comes through! More details in the Discussion below.

Discussion

I had my first “is it gonna snow” message sent to me Monday night during the storms. I dismissed it as a crazy idea (sorry to whoever sent that to me) and kinda rolled my eyes. I’m still rolling my eyes but not as boldly as I did Monday night. So, what am I talking about? I’m glad you asked!

The models are showing snow for us for Monday night. The models. As you can imagine, and as we see EVERY single year, people get on social media and start screaming that message from the rooftops. Calm down, y’all. (ha)

If you look at the NWS forecast for us for Monday it says “rain and snow. Chance of precipitation 60%.” That’s a bold forecast for this time of year! Is it going to rain? Yes. Is it going to get cold? Yes. Will the two meet up to give us snow? It’s too early to tell and I’d have to answer with “maybe”. We’ve had snow this time of year before, that much is true. Heck, I shared a record with you all just the other day when we were buried under 15″ of snow in 1966 the first week of November. (Don’t you dare tell everyone I said it’s going to snow 15″ next week! lol)

Models show two scenarios. One is a low pressure storm that moves across the Gulf and then up the East Coast. In this scenario, the low strengthens into a storm as it moves up the coast. This gives us rain and maybe flurries on the backside (most likely). The other scenario shows a low that moves just a bit inland along the Gulf Coast, throwing all kinds of precip our way. In this scenario, the arctic front moves through before the rain moves out and we get a changeover to snow Monday night. In this scenario the low also moves closer to the Appalachians and up the spine of the mountains, giving us measurable snow (least likely).

Yes, that’s what I’m saying. Is it likely? No. I’ll keep watching it and I’ll keep you posted. Meanwhile, don’t fall for the social media snowpocalypse-in-November forecasts. haha

I’ll admit, it’s kinda exciting to think about, right?……………

This is the model people are talking about. This is Tuesday morning. The blue is snow. Keep in mind this is one model and today is Wednesday (we’re are several days out and these models will change so much!).

Still, it’s kinda exciting to thing about…..

Records

On this day in 1951 folks across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas had quiet the exciting morning! At approximately 7:00 a.m.,  folks across those states were surprised by a blinding flash from the sky. The flash came from a huge ball of fire streaking across the sky. The meteor disintegrated before hitting the earth, though fragments likely rained down along the path. The meteor even broke windows in houses in Hinton, Oklahoma. That’s the kind of morning you don’t need coffee to wake up for!

Almanac

News

I noticed that the NWS is calling for some snow for the Smokies Saturday morning. That’s in response to the very strong cold front that will be moving through here Friday night. If you want to see some flakes that would be the place to go! I wouldn’t be too shocked if we saw some flurries fly around late Friday night.

The brown represents a 95% chance of at least an inch of snow.

You all have a great day!

Main Threats

Friday & Saturday nights: First hard freeze of the season.

Summary

We’re are enjoying a well-deserved beautiful day on the plateau. Be sure and get outside and enjoy it. Folks have a nice weather day to clean up from last night’s storms. This is especially true for folks hit especially hard by last night’s storms to our west and east.

By Wednesday, our next system will be moving in, bringing cloudy skies and a chance for showers. That unsettled pattern continues through Friday, when a strong cold front will bring us a good chance of rain. Thankfully, there are no indications of anything other than rain with this front.

A much colder air mass will settle into the area behind that front, bringing our first hard freeze Friday night and especially Saturday night. Highs Saturday, even with sunshine, will struggle to get out of the 30s!

Tropics

All is quiet as a mouse.

Records

A lot of records from these first two weeks of November contain tornadoes. Today’s is no different. On this day in 2005 a deadly tornado hit Evansville, Indiana in the very early morning hours of the day. The tornado took aim at the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park, which housed approximately 350 mobile homes. The storm took 19 lives there. The total claimed a total of 23 lives and the total number of injured rose to 230. This was Indiana’s deadliest tornado since the super outbreak of April 3, 1974.

The storm struck when folks were in bed. To make matters worse, weather radios malfunctioned due to a poor signal, leaving many to be hit by this tornado with no warning.

In spite of the failed weather radios, this storm led to legislation called CJ’s Law, which mandates that manufactures of mobile homes install an operating weather radio. It was named after two-year old CJ Martin who lost his life in the mobile home park that night. The county this tornado occurred in also passed laws to require extra straps and bracing to secure mobile homes.

I was at Western Kentucky when this storm hit this area. Some of us were in that area the following spring storm chasing and we drove by where this mobile home park used to be. It was an eerie site, with so many memorials.

News

Last night’s storms were rough for a lot of Tennesseans. We were so very lucky here on the plateau. We had severe weather to our west and to our east. And who can forget the storm near Murfreesboro that spun itself right up to Cookeville and then weakened. That was a tense moment. There were a lot of tense moments last night but we made it through another close call.

Below are storm reports filed so far. More will continue to come in as more folks report their damage.

Almanac

All the tornado watches have been cancelled and it’s now safe to go to bed. Sleep well!

The blog will be delayed Tuesday, for obvious reasons. ha