Author: Meteorologist Mark

First of all, I just want to say that at least it’s not raining anymore. But, why do clouds love this plateau so much? I guess we’re just a hard place to leave. Notice how the clouds just hug Cumberland County in our satellite image below. Everyone north and west of us is mostly sunny right now.

The NWS Nashville released some interesting info a while ago. This has now been the wettest September on record for Crossville. A whopping 10.59 inches of rain was recorded at the airport (some of us had more than that). The previous September record was 9.0 inches in 1989.

Historically, tornadoes are least likely in our region in the month of September. However, we had two tornadoes this week. One struck Cannon County on Monday and the other hit Fentress County on Tuesday. Both tornadoes were weak and short-lived but they both did some damage. Neither Cannon or Fentress County had EVER had a tornado in the month of September before this week. Interestingly, only nine tornadoes had ever been recorded in the month of September in ALL of Middle Tennessee prior to this week.

It’s been an interesting fall, for sure! Aren’t you anxious to see how interesting the rest of this fall and winter will be? 🙂

Main Threats

Today: Seeing the sun may come as a shock to you. Please be aware of this coming attraction.

Summary

The sun will shine today. I know it’s hard to believe but it is coming! But first, how about that fog this morning? Our dense fog advisory goes to 9:00 a.m. but it may need to be extended.

We’ll remain dry through at least Sunday. There may be an isolated shower today but I wouldn’t count on it. The chance of that is about 10%.

Our next chance of showers may arrive Monday evening, but I’m not sure enough of that to add it to the five-day outlook above. Rain chances Tuesday look much more promising at this point.

So far this year we’ve received 53.10 inches of rain here at weatherTAP in downtown Crossville. The average yearly rainfall is 56 inches. Yeah, it’s been a wet year!

Below is the rainfall we have received since Friday, according to the NWS Nashville.

Tropics

Things are looking quieter in the tropics. We’ve been monitoring Kirk in the eastern Caribbean but it now looks like he will dissipate. The environment down there is very hostile and he will likely be torn apart. I think we can nail the coffin shut on him after today.

Leslie’s remnants continue to spin out over the open Atlantic, but that is absolutely no concern to the U.S. mainland.

Hurricane Rosa is over in the eastern Pacific and that will be moving into the southwestern U.S. this weekend, bringing some needed rainfall there.

News

The NWS Nashville has confirmed that an EF-1 tornado struck just west of Clarkrange at 11:52 p.m. Tuesday night. The tornado was brief and rather weak but caused damage to a residence on Campground Road. An outbuilding was shifted off its foundation and a barn sustained significant roof damage. Three windows were also blown out of a residential building. The tornado was estimated to have had winds of 90 mph. The tornado was on the ground for half a mile and was 50 yards wide.

There was no warning for the storm and it showed no significant signature on radar. Like I said yesterday, the radar beam is at about 5,000 feet up by the time it reaches the plateau, which can cause the NWS to miss some weaker, short-lived tornadoes.

This storm reminds me, as it should you, that the fall season is our secondary peak in tornado activity. This peak isn’t nearly as pronounced as the one in the spring, but it’s worth noting none the less. I wrote an article that was published in the Fentress Courier and Livingston Enterprise last week about this severe weather season that folks tend to forget about. I hope you enjoy it and maybe even learn something from it.

You all have a great Friday and a nice weekend!

The Fall Severe Weather Season

With the coming of fall, thoughts turn to changing leaves and cool, crisp days. But, for those of us in the weather business our thoughts turn to the fall severe weather season.

Most people are familiar with severe weather in the spring. The change from colder weather to warmer weather is often a collision of air masses that leads to storms. Sometimes, these storms send us running to the hallway or basement.

Many folks tend to forget that we have a secondary severe weather season in the fall. This secondary peak in severe weather activity is not as active as the spring one, but it is worth noting.

This slight, secondary peak in severe weather in the fall is similar in origin to the one in the spring. It results from the seasons changing, with summer losing its stronghold as winter begins to move in.

We have had some notable severe weather outbreaks on the plateau in the fall. On the tenth day of November of 2002 Cumberland County had the most violent tornado in their county’s history. The EF-3 claimed four lives and cut a swath of devastation that stretched for 12 miles. This tornado was part of the worst November tornado outbreak to ever strike Middle Tennessee.

Other notable fall tornadoes for our area include an F-2 In 1957 that tracked for nearly 14 miles along the eastern edge of Fentress County. The storm caused 25 thousand dollars in property damage. Tornadoes in the fall of 1973 and 1977 caused a total of $275,000 worth of damages in Overton County, proving that fall tornadoes can be quite destructive.

So, even though storms are likely far from your mind when you think of our beautiful autumn season, you mustn’t ignore those dark storm clouds, should they start to gather.

If you’re still awake, go out and look toward Knoxville (east). Find the moon. It’s hazy but the sky around it is beautiful. Give your eyes a little time to adjust to the darkness. We’re being rewarded for all the rain we have had. Ha

Main Threats

Today: ponding of water on roadways due to ground saturation. Drive careful.

Summary

Most of the heavier rain has lifted north of us this morning, leaving us with scattered showers across the plateau. These won’t add up to a whole lot today, so I don’t foresee any major flooding issues.

Then….

The sun comes out tomorrow!!! I hope you’ll recognize it. That dry stretch of weather will stay with us through at least Sunday. We may see an isolated shower Friday afternoon and again on Monday, but I just couldn’t bring myself to putting a raindrop on either day. We need to dry out!

Temps will be about average for this time of year. A week or so ago it had looked like we would see highs in the 60s, but the front isn’t going to get far enough south of us to let that much of a Canadian air mass invade. Still, our afternoons will be pleasant, with low humidity. The nights will be quite comfortable and cool, as well.

Since Friday, many of us have picked up several inches of rain. I’ve collected 8.6″ at my house in Rinnie since it started raining Friday. Many other locations around the county have picked up 4-6 inches of rain. We’ve picked up 7.41 inches here at Trade-A-Plane for the month of September. Our average rainfall for September is 3.5-4 inches.

Below is a map from the NWS showing estimated rainfall since Friday. Rinnie should be a darker shade of red.

The heaviest rain today will be just to our east, where the front is stalling out. You can see the flash flood watches for the counties shaded in dark green.

Tropics

We’re still watching Tropical Storm Kirk in the southern Atlantic. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is tracking westward, toward the Caribbean. Currently, models show this system weakening as it nears Haiti, but we’ll have to keep an eye on it. We always watch storms that move into the Caribbean this time of year. 

We still have the remnants of Leslie way out in the Atlantic. The storm will likely reorganize today into a storm but it is no threat to any land.

Records

It was rainy around here on this day in 2002. The remnants of Tropical Storm Isidore moved into Middle Tennessee in the overnight hours. Numerous locations around the mid state had 5-8 inches of rain. The bulk of the rainfall fell west of the plateau, but we still had a couple inches or so of rain.

On this day in 1959 a very strong tornado struck Hollow, Oklahoma. The powerful tornado was 440 yards wide and traveled 20 miles. The good thing about this tornado was that it moved very, very slowly and was described as producing a tremendously loud warning roar. As a result, not one single person was killed.

Finally, on this day in 1987 the weather at Mount Washington, New Hampshire was especially crazy. Their weather is notorious for being some of the wildest in the country. On September 27, 1987 the base of the mountain enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s; the perfect fall day. Meanwhile, the top of the mountain was cloudy and 13 degrees. Snow accumulated to nearly five inches, as winds gusted to 99 mph.

Which would you choose? I’ll take snow any day! 🙂

News 

The tornado warning Monday night for Cannon County turned out to be an EF-0. I may have told you all that but I can’t remember. The brief twister destroyed a barn and blew some shingles off the roof of a house.

There were reports of another tornado Tuesday night in the Muddy Pond area of Fentress County. The NWS is supposed to have done a storm survey on that one but I can’t find anything this morning. I’ll let you know as soon as I find out something. If that was a tornado, it had no warning. Some weak tornadoes occur under the radar beam, especially in areas like the plateau. The radar beam is up at about 5,000 feet by the time it reaches us from Nashville. A lot can happen between here and 5,000 feet! Heck, I’ve even seen the NWS in Norman Oklahoma miss tornado warnings. It just happens sometimes.

I’ll let you know when I hear something from the NWS about this Muddy Pond storm.

Our front is filtering in colder air to the country. Freeze watches cover nearly all of North Dakota for tonight.

You all have a great day and try to stay dry for one more day!