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The snow forecast is on track. We have numerous snow showers showing up on radar. Accumulation should stay on the light side, with most areas seeing well under an inch. Isolated locations could see up to an inch.

The NWS in Nashville continues to feel a winter weather advisory isn’t necessary. Never the less, be careful if you’re out traveling tonight and early in the morning.

The sun will return tomorrow and Sunday, before heavy rains move in next week. At least March is coming in like a lamb on Sunday. Heaven help us when it goes out like a lion! (haha)

Below is a current view of the radar, showing scattered snow showers from here to West TN.

WHAT: Snow Showers

WHEN: This evening (mainly after 6:00 pm)

HOW MUCH: A dusting to one half inch, with up to one inch in isolated locations

Clouds will quickly thicken up again this evening and that will lead to some additional snow showers. Temps will be dropping back below freezing after dark, so some slick spots could develop on area roads again.

The NWS had said they don’t expect to issue winter weather advisories for tonight, due to a lack of snowfall. They are now reconsidering that, as they should. On the radar below, the counties shaded in blue are under winter weather advisories for tonight.

Radar shows this second system just now moving into northern Middle TN from the northwest. Moisture with this system is more limited than with our morning system, but some showers could come down pretty hard at times.

This system will be out of here by morning, leading to dry but chilly Saturday.

Well, round one is winding down. We’ll see some flakes flying from time to time but what you have is pretty much what you’ll get from that first round. It sure was a pretty snow to watch fall!

Temps are around the freezing mark right now across the plateau. Those temps should creep on up to the mid 30s this afternoon, before the next system arrives. Those temps getting above freezing, along with a break in the precip, should allow roads to be in good shape this afternoon.

That next system should be moving in later this evening. Looking at the latest data, that system may be approaching the plateau by 4:00. This second round of snow should be fairly light and fast moving. Therefore, I don’t expect more than a dusting to half an inch. I’ll keep an eye on that though.

On the radar image below, notice how moisture-starved system #2 is compared to #1. That system is sliding southeast and will be here this evening.

 

Let it snow, again!

Weather Headlines

A snowy Friday

A nice weekend!

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for next week

Main threats

Be careful on area roads this morning. Snow is coming down pretty good at this time, which could cause slick spots.

Another round of light snow is expected this evening and tonight. This, too, could cause some slick roadways.

Heavy rainfall next week will lead to flooding concerns. At least 4-6 inches of rain is possible through the week. Some of you could see more than that.  Pictured below is the outlook for total rainfall over the next week. Look familiar?

Summary

Let it snow! Some of those flakes are huge this morning here in Crossville! Enjoy the snow but be careful if you’re out driving in it.

This snow will taper off as we get closer to the noon hour. Temps will also be slowly rising a few degrees above freezing. That should lead to better road conditions for our Friday afternoon. Anything you can put off until afternoon should be put off until then.

Another round of light snow will arrive this evening and overnight (after 4:00 pm.). Up to one half inch of accumulation is possible from that round, with many of us likely getting a dusting or so. I’ll update those totals as the day goes along, but that system looks more moisture starved and it’s a quick mover. At this time, the NWS Nashville does not anticipate even issuing a winter weather advisory for this second system. I’ll let you know if that changes.

Then, we’re all set for a nice weekend. Get out and enjoy it if you can because much of next week is looking ugly.

Rain will develop by Monday and become heavier and more widespread as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Several inches of rain is likely, along with thunderstorms. Some storms could be on the strong side. I’ll keep an eye on that.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Winter weather advisories are in place for parts of Washington state. Further south, wind and blowing dust advisories are in place for parts of Nevada. Winter storm watches cover southeastern Wyoming. In the Southeast, numerous streams remain under flood advisories. That will worsen next week. Meanwhile, light snow is prompting winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings for portions of the southern Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau region of TN. Lake-Effect snow is causing winter storm warnings in the Northeast.

Records

The first February tornado to ever be recorded in Nebraska struck on this date in 2012. The EF-0 struck Lincoln and Logan Counties. The tornado traveled for three miles and lasted six minutes. The twister hit mainly open rangeland, so little to no damage resulted. There was still patches of snow on the ground from a previous winter weather event.

It is quite unusual for tornado activity to occur that far north this time of year. Severe weather seasons are often distinct across the plains, with the southern plains getting the bulk of theirs in April and May, and the northern plains getting theirs in May, June and even into July. It is very unusual to see severe weather outside those months in those regions. So, while tornadoes are well know across the plains, their seasons are well defined.

Contrast that with the South, where we worry about bad storms year round.

Friday Weather Funny

NASA News

Here’s an odd bit of NASA news. On February 19th astronomers spotted an object the size of a car moving quickly across the sky. As it turns out, this object has been going around earth for the past three years! It is most likely an asteroid caught by Earth’s gravity. It’s like a mini moon. Literally.

This is the second mini moon to be discovered. The last one was in 2006. It finally escaped our gravitational pull the next year.

This new mini moon circles us about once every 47 days on a very wide, oval shaped course.

Don’t get too attached. Astronomers predict that this one will fling itself out by April.

Looks like it would just kick of its shoes and stay awhile, right?

News

On Tuesday, a winter storm did something a little strange in Kansas. It produced a swath of snow that was only 10-15 miles wide. The snow inside the swath was over a foot deep! Just outside the swath the only thing reported was snow flurries.

This is why snow forecasts give us headaches. (ha) By the way, this is why there are whole meteorology courses devoted to mesoscale (localized) meteorology!

Pictured below is visible satellite imagery that I saved yesterday, showing that narrow swatch of snow across central Kansas. Remember, clouds move and snow doesn’t. Pretty neat, right?

A passenger (Leigh Marts) in a plane flying over the area took this picture of the snow. How wild is that?

You all have a great day!